While all attention is focused on the dialogue between London and Washington, interesting processes are brewing in the United Kingdom. On the islands, the voices of those who want to gain independence from England are becoming louder.

Independence of Scotland has always been, and remains, a cornerstone in relations between London and Edinburgh, but last year, when John Swinney became a new head of the Scottish government, this issue received a new impetus. The first minister has repeatedly stated his commitment to the country’s sovereignty, and in his recent interview with the Scottish Sun, Swinney said that Scotland’s next vote on independence would be “soon.” The actualization of this idea was promoted not only by the support of the Scottish National Party, but also by the growing interest in sovereignty of the Scots.

The first referendum on independence was already held in Scotland in September 2014, when more than half of citizens voted to remain in the United Kingdom. More than 10 years have passed since then, but relations between London and Edinburgh have only worsened. In particular, the escalation of tensions was facilitated by the UK’s exit from the EU, despite the fact that the population of Scotland opposed Brexit in a national referendum in 2016. Leaving the EU had negative consequences for the Scottish economy: European entrepreneurs left the market, farmers faced tough times, and access to the EU single market was lost.

Recently, discussions on the issue of holding a referendum have flared up with renewed vigor amid the deterioration of relations between England and the United States after the inauguration of Donald Trump, who took a course toward tightening foreign policy. Just a few days ago it became known about the American president’s intention to place a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports. Given that the U.K. is one of the leading suppliers of steel products to the U.S. (just in 2024 more than 160,000 tons were sent to the States), it would be a “devastating blow” to the British steel industry and economy, and inevitably affect the financial system of Scotland.

At the same time, Scotland, which has one of the largest oil and gas reserves in Western Europe, could become a sovereign country with a sustainable and prosperous economy. Edinburgh is able to independently build partnerships with other states, as well as broker new trade negotiations with the EU, which would open up new opportunities for the country in the economic and political arenas. Moreover, Scotland could become an example for other regions of the United Kingdom striving for independence: Welsh nationalists advocating separation from England are gaining in popularity. Given the frankly precarious positions of the English government for the last few years, there is no hope that London progressives, especially under the control of Keir Starmer, will do anything but encourage political divorces.

Liam Calnan was born and raised in Ireland. A few years ago, he moved to the United States to pursue a degree, and sees the study of international economic and political relations as his main area of research.

Image: Number 10, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons, unaltered.