President Trump will be sworn in again in a few days. The 119th Congress is mostly in the hands of conservatives. Heads of every agency, bureau, department, and commission will soon be Trump appointees. Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy are dedicating the next 18 months of their lives, along with thousands of us, to establishing an effective, efficient, and limited federal government and reducing the burdens of the federal deficit, the wasted cost of federal debt servicing, and the bloated federal budget.

We the People are behind this. Conservatives, sensible libertarians, and prudent liberals are behind this. But what does this mean at state, city, county, and parish levels? All these entities must implement austerity budgets right now. I can almost guarantee that my beloved Washington State will become the cautionary tale in this larger story.

Washington’s financial condition has been in the news lately, especially on X, via conservative legislators and those who keep track of these sorts of things. Thank you, Elon, for giving us a reliable salon for our bohemian conversations.

Image made using Grok.

Two years ago, Washington had a budget surplus. From 2013 to 2022, we saw our annual revenues grow steadily from $36 to $70 billion and annual expenditures from $37 to $66.5 billion. The budget was generally balanced, and shortfalls were covered.

Our deep-blue activist legislature was able to nearly double expenditures in just 10 years. In 2023, the revenue for this state, with a population of slightly more than seven million, went up to almost $75 billion, and expenditures kept pace. In 2024, revenues dipped slightly while expenditures topped them by more than $2 billion. Last session, our activist legislature went turbo and passed lots of legislation that comes with a hefty price tag.

Washington’s Office of Financial Management estimates an additional $12.6 billion will be needed over the next four years to cover Olympia’s generosity. It has also projected that state revenues through 2029 will drop below $66.5 billion. The virulent lefties controlling our legislature are casting about for ways to increase revenue to meet this shortfall. They’re proposing all sorts of new taxes and increases in current taxes for a state with one of the highest costs of living in the country. They are talking seriously about taxing unrealized capital gains.

Jeff Bezos already relocated to Florida to spend more time with his mother. Washington’s net migration, while still positive, dropped last year by 15% over the ten-year average. If I had to guess, I’d say that the bulk of those coming in are a mixture of indigents seeking better benefits and illegal aliens. People of means are moving out if they can. Quite a few are remote working from other states.

The gaping sinkhole in all of this, which no one has addressed yet at an official level, is that fully one-third of Washington State revenues come from the federal government. When this cash flow sinks dramatically, as it will and must, there’s going to be a state-wide disaster. Since process takes time, the reduction in federal funds to the state likely will come before the reduction in federal tax assessments to its citizens, hopefully by no more than a year.

Today, our legislature should not be proposing new taxes to cover last year’s wildly enhanced program funding. Olympia should roll back all new programs and increased expenditures. Legislators should also scour the state’s regulations and budget to see what can be eliminated—either partially or entirely.

The conservative blueprint for a better and more efficient federal government is being prepared by the Trump Administration and the 119th Congress, with input from D.O.G.E (Elon Musk’s and Vivek Ramaswamy’s private Department of Government Efficiency) and those voters communicating with all of them. States need to be prepared for this and take action before they are hammered by reduced federal outlays to the states. So should counties, cities, and parishes, as reductions at the state level will certainly have a broad impact.

Forewarned is forearmed, as they say—except for those for whom the denial of reality is much more palatable than preparing for a clearly seen future. It’s going to be tough at the federal level to start saying no to all the “feel good” stuff we’ve been doing. In Olympia, I fear, legislators will continue on their merry way. That is, until the fiscal pain they cause the Washington taxpayer loses them their seats in the next election.

Washington conservatives: Get ready. We must be the voice of reason, offering rational solutions to the wide variety of problems that excess generosity and increasingly onerous taxation will cause.

Other states: It would be prudent to gird your loins as well if you depend on federal largess to cover basic costs.

Anony Mee is the nom de blog of a retired public servant who X-tweets at oh_yeahMee.