Now that it’s over, how would you describe the hysteria over Putin's latest nuclear saber-rattling?  Given how shabby the threat was and how easily some of us were reduced to hysterics, I am thinking, “Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me.”

Mass bed-wetting occurred on November 21, 2024, when Putin fired an Oreshnik missile into the Ukrainian city of Dnipro.  The Oreshnik is an experimental, mid-range, nuclear-capable missile.  The keywords are experimental and nuclear.  Experimental, as in the Oreshnik, is still in development and years away from mass production, much less deployment.  Nuclear, as in the dreaded N-word, had the usual gang of idiots in hysterics over impending nuclear war.

Did the public firing of an unproven prototype really put the world on the brink of Armageddon?  Let’s look at Putin’s means, motives, and opportunities for an answer.  Vlad has the means to launch an unprovoked nuclear first strike, a literal bolt from the blue.  Doing so is suicidal, and last I checked, Putin isn’t suicidal.  Even if Vlad’s sanity snapped, the people who would have to carry out such an order would remain sane.  For this reason, there will be no all-out nuclear war.

But what about a limited strike, dropping one or two warheads on a single target to send a message and end the war on Putin’s terms?  This is escalating to deescalate.  It sounds good in theory, but given the epic fraud and incompetence displayed by the Russian Army in Ukraine, it’s doubtful Putin can pull this off.  Nuclear weapons are a system of systems.  Weapon design and production are separate systems.  Weapon delivery systems, bombers, missiles, and Soviet era oxcarts are all individual systems.

All these systems have to work together, or the strike has failed.  And there are so many ways to fail.  The strike has failed if the missile or the bomber can’t get in the air.  If the missile or bomber gets airborne but is shot down, the strike has failed.  If the missile or bomber succeeds in putting a round on target but defects in the bomb’s manufacture or maintenance render the bomb a dud, the strike has failed.

A failed strike sends a compelling message, just not the kind the kind Putin would find very useful or survivable.  And that’s the good news.  Turning Kyiv or Dnipro into a glow-in-the-dark pothole brings NATO into the war.  Given the sheer bloody incompetence displayed by Russia’s military to date, I think it’s a given that NATO’s involvement would collapse the Russian Army. (If you think otherwise, please tell us why in the comments.) At that point, Putin’s options would be unconditional surrender, which would be both political and literal suicide, or going to total war, which is suicide.

Did I mention neither Putin nor his lackeys are suicidal?  There is zero motivation for going down this road.  A more positive motivating factor for not going nuclear is Vladimir Putin, at 72 years of age, is no spring chicken.  In the next few years, Putin will move on to his final resting place.  Simple logic demands that Putin’s people are conspiring, scheming, err…planning their glorious post-Putin future.  I’m pretty sure nuclear war isn’t part of anyone’s plans.

Finally, there are nuclear opportunities short of war.  If Vlad or his replacement wanted to send a message, resuming nuclear weapon testing would focus undivided attention on Russia’s demands.  Such a move would eliminate all the failure points mentioned above and deprive NATO of a reason to intervene.  (Sovereign nations can nuke themselves all they want.)

So, let’s sum this up.  Putin’s technical means to conduct a nuclear strike are weak.  His motivations to do so are weaker, and better opportunities exist to get his message out.  And yet, somehow, we were just moments away from nuclear Armageddon?  Whatever.

The only thing worse than falling for a shabby, bargain basement con once is falling for it over and over again.  Putin’s saber has been rattling since his glorious little war went sideways.  There is some logic to Putin making threats.  He doesn’t have much else to work with, but to fall for such nonsense if Vlad fooled you once, shame on him.  If he fooled you twice (or more), shame on you.

Image: Kremlin.ru, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons, cropped.