The recent collapse of Syria provides stark evidence that our intelligence apparatus doesn't know what it's paid to know, nor can it be counted on to provide reliable, actionable advice early enough to avoid surprises.

You might believe that while our multiple overlapping intelligence agencies have grown at a voracious rate and cost us a staggering amount of money, their intelligence products have declined in quality.

Even Israel's vaunted Shin Bet and Mossad lost some of their luster with the intelligence faults of Oct. 7.

Could we again be missing the signs that the unthinkable is happening again, except this time in Russia?

The signs are all there if you look.

In every country, a sort of glue holds them together. It can be religious vigor, a dictator successfully suppressing a population, economic prosperity that tends to quiet a population, or even social cohesion, like Finland or Norway, demonstrating group thinking and the value of strong societal bonds.

In the case of Russia, there's the extraordinary shared lie that is allowing President Vladimir Putin to drive the nation to what looks like the run-up to a world war.

Putin is like Hitler, in that he seems to believe he can accomplish his territorial goals using Hitler's tactics, but without an actual multi-nation war.

But Europe today is not the Europe of the late 1930s, especially as America is tied into defending Europe against aggression by NATO's Article 5.

Today's events, not just in Ukraine but in Georgia, Moldova, the Baltic States, and Poland, all report heavy Russian destabilizing actions currently underway.

Putin depends on his adversaries to win his wars, leveraging their insecurities and internal political divides, a do-over of what Germany attempted almost 90 years ago.

Pluralistic nations fall too easily into the same trap that France, the Netherlands, and Poland did at the commencement of World War II.

So here are some reasons why Russia may fall before it gets as far as Hitler did:

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has significantly impacted Russia's military capabilities. The war has stretched Russia's resources thin, limiting its ability to project power in other regions. (Russia is evacuating Syria today.) The conflict has also exposed vulnerabilities in Russia's military strategy and logistics. The war has also led to increased sanctions and international pressure, further straining Russia's military and economic resources.

Specifically, how are Russia's capabilities degraded?

1. Casualties and Manpower: Russia has suffered substantial losses in personnel, with estimates of 750,000 casualties (killed, injured, or captured). This has severely impacted their ability to maintain a robust fighting force.

2. Equipment Losses: The war has led to significant losses in modern military equipment, including tanks, artillery, and aircraft. The Russian military has also struggled to replenish these losses, fighting sanctions and industrial limitations.

3. Military Culture and Strategy: Russia's military culture, characterized by a highly centralized decision-making process and a disregard for the welfare of its soldiers, has hindered its ability to adapt and learn from battlefield experiences. This has resulted in poor strategic choices and ineffective command and control systems.

4. Quality of Troops: The quality of Russian troops has declined, with poorly trained conscripts replacing the once-professional forces. This has affected their combat effectiveness and overall military performance. 75% of prewar non-commissioned officers have been killed, injured, or captured.

5. Economic and Industrial Constraints: Western sanctions have limited Russia's access to high technology and critical materials, making it difficult for them to regenerate military power. The declining population and industrial base further exacerbate these challenges. Inflation exceeds ten percent, and its economy is being converted rapidly to support war aims.

The Russian government has implemented extensive measures to control and censor information. Many independent news outlets have been blocked or restricted, and the state-controlled media presents a biased narrative. The Kremlin's efforts to build a sovereign internet, blocking free access to the internet, further limits access to global information.

The Russian government tightly controls information about the war, including casualty figures. Official Russian sources often underreport or deny the extent of their losses. Independent media and international organizations provide more accurate estimates. For example, recent reports suggest that Russia has suffered around 198,000 soldiers killed and 550,000 wounded.

Putin has employed a variety of methods to suppress opposition in Russia:

1. Legal Measures: The government has passed laws restricting freedom of speech, assembly, and the press. These laws are used to target opposition figures and organizations.

2. Arrests and Imprisonment: Prominent opposition leaders, such as Alexei Navalny, have been arrested, imprisoned, and in his case, killed, on charges widely understood as politically motivated. Others have been poisoned or driven into exile.

3. Media Control: The state controls most major media outlets, ensuring that opposition voices are marginalized and government narratives dominate.

4. Intimidation and Violence: There have been numerous reports of opposition figures being harassed, attacked, or even killed. High-profile cases include the assassination of Boris Nemtsov.

5. Disinformation Campaigns and Hostage-Taking: The government uses disinformation to discredit opposition leaders and movements, often portraying them as foreign agents or extremists. Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich became a prisoner of Putin's regime for writing about Russia's economy, and he has since revealed the existence of Putin's version of the German SS — the Department for Counterintelligence Operations, or DKRO. The DKRO spies on dissidents and intimidates hundreds of thousands of others. It also arrests foreigners, and the Russians whom the DKRO suspects of working with them.

Yes, the Ukraine war has created a greater risk of unintended consequences for the West. The conflict has heightened tensions between NATO and Russia, increasing the risk of escalation and potential confrontation. Additionally, the war has massively increased military spending and highlighted a renewed focus on European defense capabilities.

America's isolationist days are a thing of the past. We are too integrated into a world economy of our own making, for one thing. Second, history has taught us that no shortage of bullies covet what we have. Sooner or later, bullies must be punched in the face and sent packing. But maybe they will fall first.

God bless America.

Allan J. Feifer is a patriot, author, businessman, thinker and strategist. Read more about Allan, his background, and his ideas to create a better tomorrow at www.1plus1equals2.com.

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