In a move by the outgoing Biden administration that could only be interpreted as detrimental to Israel, the U.S. government sold Egypt $5 billion in military hardware.  The arms sold are offensive weapons that could be aimed only at the Jewish state.  Egypt may not be Iran in terms of its hostility toward Israel and the U.S., but its relationship with Iran, China, and Russia has been gradually warming, while the Egyptians have been protective of Hamas in its war against Israel.  Equally troubling, Egypt and Qatar have been the U.S.’s “go to” countries in the Israeli hostage negotiations.  Egyptian and Qatari elites and their “streets” consider Israel their chief enemy.

Let us begin with the “cold peace” that Egypt initiated against Israel soon after the 1979 peace treaty that has, in recent years, turned even “colder.”  In the interim, Egypt has been building up its military forces in the Sinai Peninsula, which is a violation of the peace accords.  Egypt is also building tunnels across the Suez Canal in order to ferry its troops in what might be a surprise attack against Israel.  Cairo has quadrupled it arms storage facilities along the canal, once again for use against Israel.

The Egyptian government mouthpiece, Al-Ahram, reported on December 21, 2024 that “The US State Department informed Congress it had approved the sale of $4.69 billion in equipment for 555 US made M1A1 Abrams tanks possessed by Egypt, $630 million for 2,183 Hellfire air-to-surface missiles and $30 million in precision-guided munitions. The sale, according to the State Department “will support the foreign policy and national security of the United States by helping to improve the security of a Major Non-NATO Ally country that continues to be an important strategic partner in the Middle East.”

Biden’s State Department argument for selling the above offensive weapons to Egypt, “to help improve the security of a major non-NATO ally,” is ridiculous.  Who exactly is threatening Egypt’s security?  It is not Sudan, Libya, or Ethiopia.  Do Biden and Blinken believe that Israel is threatening Egypt’s security?  This ill conceived idea is one that directly threatens Israel.

Geopolitically, the Middle East today resembles the historic competition of the 19th-century European powers.  Egypt isn’t saddened by the damage Israel inflicted on Shiite Iran and Hezb’allah.  At the same time, Egypt would like to bring Israel down and emerge as a dominant regional power.  Egypt and Iran have stepped up their diplomatic contacts since the start of the war Hamas launched against Israel on October 7, 2023. President Masoud Pezeshkian of Iran was in Cairo last week for the D-8 Summit of Muslim countries (which includes Türkiye, Egypt, Nigeria, Pakistan, Iran, Indonesia, Malaysia, Bangladesh, and the recent membership of Azerbaijan), which marked the first time, in more than a decade, that an Iranian president was in attendance in Egypt.  

The incoming Trump administration needs to keep a watchful eye on the ever-closer relations Egypt is developing with China, Russia, and Iran.  They also need to weigh not just the recent Biden administration’s package to Egypt, but that Egypt receives $1.3 billion annually in U.S. aid and that it received $235 million of military aid in 2023.  All of this despite its dismal human rights record.

According to a 2021 report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Egypt spent $15 billion on weapons purchases between 2014 and 2017, 60% of which was purchased from Russia.  In the summer of 2020, Egypt received five Su-35s despite the U.S. threat of sanctions.  In addition to not following through on sanctions, the U.S. has continued to send Egypt economic and military aid.

Egypt’s ruling circles see Russia as a key foreign policy ally even though Egypt has been one of America’s most important partners in the region for the past five decades.  Cultivating good relations with Moscow is an important pillar of Egypt’s foreign policy.  Egyptians believe that strategic relations with Russia help their country balance relations with major powers, primarily the U.S. and the European Union, which have criticized Egypt for its human rights violations.  Unlike his American and European counterparts, Putin is not concerned about issues of human rights and democracy in Egypt or elsewhere.

The results of a recent Washington Institute poll show that a majority of Egyptians view relations with China as more important than relations with the U.S.  In 2014, the two countries signed a “strategic partnership agreement,” promising cooperation in the fields of defense, technology, the economy, counter-terrorism, and fighting cyber-crimes.  During Xi Jinping’s visit to Egypt in 2016, 21 more agreements were signed — including an agreement for $15 billion of Chinese investment in various projects. 

China mediated a peace agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which then encouraged Egypt’s President al-Sisi to tighten relations with China.  As noted, Chinese influence in Egypt extends beyond the economic sphere.

Egypt isn’t a genuine friend of the U.S. and never will be.  Egypt is the original home of the Muslim Brotherhood (M.B.).  The majority of Egyptians hate Israel and would gladly discard the peace treaty with Israel if given a choice.  That same majority sympathizes with the M.B.  What happened to Bashar Assad in Syria might occur to Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.  A revolution engineered by the M.B. that removes al-Sisi isn’t a far-fetched scenario.  But in the case of Egypt, billions of dollars of sophisticated U.S. arms and dollars would fall into the wrong hands.

In the Holy Bible the prophet Isaiah warns against trusting Egypt as a friend or ally.  It is written, “Behold, thou trustest upon the staff of this bruised reed, even upon Egypt; whereon if a man lean, it will go into his hand, and pierce it; so is Pharaoh king of Egypt to all that trust on him.”

Al-Sisi may not be Pharaoh, but Egypt is still a broken reed not to be trusted.

Flickr, CC BY-SA 2.0.

Image: Mark Fischer via Flickr, CC BY-SA 2.0.