Last Friday, a Mexican journalist popped the big question: Who is going to win the U.S. election and what does mean for us?

I answered, making a couple of points:

First, no one is talking about Latin America up here. Yes, Mexico is on the agenda but talk of Trump tariffs is really about China.

Second, I answered another question by pointing out that I have no idea of what a Harris presidency would do. Again, VP Harris has not addressed the issue. As for a Trump return, we do know his record: he is supportive of free trade agreements as long as U.S. workers do not get the short end of the deal.

There is concern because too many Mexicans have a bad case of Trump Derangement Syndrome. Others are more pragmatic or lukewarm, such as Travis Bembenek, CEO of Mexico Daily News. This is what he wrote:

Former President Trump by far has had the most vocal comments about what he would do with tariffs with Mexico. As a result, many think he would be “bad for Mexico”. But the current USMCA agreement, which has undeniably been good for the country and allowed Mexico to steadily increase exports to the point of now being the No. 1 exporter to the United States, was signed during the Trump administration.

Ironically, Vice President Harris was one of only 11 Senators to vote against the agreement. If elected president, Trump would most certainly take a hard line on Mexico on many topics, but it appears he would likely take an even harder line on China, which could ultimately benefit Mexico.

Harris might not be as hard on tariffs on Mexico, but also might not be as hard on China. As much as I would like to provide a clear answer, it’s really not obvious yet which candidate would be better for Mexico. There are still too many unknowns.

Only a few days of high anxiety remain. Let’s pray for a clear winner and a clear path forward. That clarity will hopefully allow Mexico and the new U.S. administration to begin engaging on the many important issues and opportunities that the two countries face.

My view is that a Trump presidency will use tariffs to negotiate a better border deal and will quickly activate the "Stay in Mexico" policy.

What makes the situation more complicated is that the new President Claudia Sheinbaum is off to a shaky start. She is having a constitutional battle over the judicial reforms passed by her predecessor. Cartel violence is topic # 1 with Mexicans. The economy is also a bit shaky and there is talk of a "weak peso."

Last but not least, I always remind that the best solution to U.S.-México relations is a strong U.S. economy. My guess is that most Mexicans know that’s more likely to happen with Trump because it happened before.

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Image: Ron Cogswell