Detractors of Putin have described him as someone holding Ukraine and Russia hostage. For the sake of argument, let’s say that is the case.  Then what is the best course of action for the West?  To answer that question, let’s analogize it with a hypothetical situation where a group of dangerous, desperate men wielding guns and explosives attempt to hold up a bank. Before they can get away, someone alerts the police, and the bank is surrounded by the police and a stalemate ensues with the robbers holding hostages inside.

The police negotiator establishes communication with the robber gang leader and requests that he and his gang surrender. The leader informs the police negotiator that he is in possession of a radiological bomb that if detonated will kill everyone in the vicinity and make the surrounding landscape uninhabitable for miles around. The gang leader requests that the police pull back and a means of escape be made available to him and associates.

The police negotiator makes some inquiries and determines that the bomb threat is real. The robbers do possess a radiological weapon.  At the same time, members of the gang tell the leader that they will not surrender and if the police attempt to storm the bank, they will set off the device. The police negotiator knows that these men are desperate and hold a radiological bomb, but he thinks that the gang leader is bluffing when he says that he will set off the bomb. Moreover, he starts positioning his SWAT team to pick off the leader. Suddenly shots are heard, and both the police negotiator and the robber gang leader are not sure about what exactly has happened.

At this point I will stop and ask the reader the following questions. What would you do at that moment if you were the police negotiator? What would you do if you were the gang leader?

The scenario that I describe mirrors the situation that both leaders in the West and those in the Kremlin may find themselves very soon unless sane people step forward and reach a negotiated settlement of the war in Ukraine.

Image: Kremlin.ru, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons, cropped.