Before the debate, Senator Ted Cruz was up 5 in the RCP average. The final score will have something to do with how President Trump does in Texas. I've seen different polls suggesting that Trump is somewhere north of 6 points, maybe even 10. My guess is closer to 10, but no matter what, his numbers will have an impact on the Cruz race.

On Tuesday night, the one and only Cruz-Allred debate occurred, and it went well for the incumbent.

Allred tried to rebrand himself but Cruz spent the whole night reminding the congressman of his record. This is a sample:

Sen. Ted Cruz and Democratic challenger Colin Allred squared off in what turned out to be a sprint of a debate on WFAA, an hour-long back-and-forth on a range of issues, including abortion, immigration and the Israel-Hamas war.

On abortion, Allred tried to blame Cruz because women had to leave the state to get one. Such anti-Cruz abortion ads have been on TV every night. Cruz responded by reminding Allred that the Texas law was passed by the legislature and signed by the Governor. He suggested to Allred to run for the state legislature and try to change the law. Cruz also brought up the issue of late term abortion and parental notification. Allred really couldn't come back on that.

On the border, Allred kept bringing the famous Senate border bill. Cruz effectively responded saying that the Senate and House were never able to reconcile their proposals. I don't how effective that kind of "inside baseball" was but reminding Allred that he called the border wall "racist" was strong and reminiscent of Beto O'Rourke calling on the government to take your AR-15 away.

They went back and forth on Israel, the economy and boys playing on girls' teams. Both guys punched hard respectfully but Cruz may have won the debate by simply knowing Allred's record inside out. In other words, it's hard to call yourself a moderate in Texas by voting almost 100% with Pelosi.

Again, most objective observers say that Cruz won but I'm not sure how many people changed their minds. These debates tend to attract the partisans. Let's see how both campaigns can get their voters out.

As fair as I can tell, Cruz will get his voters out and may score a bigger victory if Trump wins Texas by 10 points.

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Image: Gage Skidmore