Forget the polls -- Follow the money

By Ed Sherdlu

The ever-present, ever-changing election polls reflect what a limited group of people think on a given day. But the billions of dollars wagered on 2024 Presidential election betting proves what a compendium of smart, wealthy people think will happen on Election Day. Polls are opinions. Betting markets are opinions, too, but they are opinions backed up by billions of dollars. The smart money is now backing Trump 60-40.

Betting on everything from elections to the date of the first measurable snowfall in London has long been legal in the U.K. The internet, combined with the security of blockchain money movements, spread wagering worldwide. Billions have already been bet on this election. Billions more dollars, Euros, yen, and even rubles will be gambled before November 5. Although the odds strongly favored Harris in the weeks after the Biden campaign bit the dust, the ongoing shift in bettors’ money-backed best guesses has now moved to Trump 3-2.

According to Forbes, the wagering giant Polymarket recently broke the 60% ceiling. This is the first time Pres. Trump enjoyed such a wide margin since Biden dropped out (or was dropped out, take your pick) from the race. The survey company Election Betting Odds aggregates the betting markets like Real Clear Politics combines pollsters' predictions. EBO has Trump at 57%.

The U.S. pollsters do not favor Pres. Trump that highly. Even so, RCP now has Trump up in the critical swing states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, and New Mexico. These are massive changes from two months ago. RCP is now predicting Trump would win with 312 of the required 270 electoral votes if the election were held today. Simply put, the projected ballots and bucks agree.

The critical information for us is not just the betting percentages. It’s how they are generated. These new numbers all come from people who are sure enough in their expectations to bet millions of dollars on the outcome. These are the “Smart Money People” who back up their feelings with hard cash.

You may remember J. Edgar Hoover’s adage, “Follow the money, and you follow the course of the crime.” In this election, it’s “Follow the bucks, and you will predict the ballots.”