John R. Lott, the President of the Crime Prevention Research Center, drives Democrats/socialists/communist (D/s/cs) crazy. He does it the old-fashioned way: he does factual, honest, reproducible research about crime, guns and related issues and provides his data sets and methodology on request. Anti-liberty/gun “researchers” like the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) don’t do that.

In Lies, damned lies and statistics, I noted the FBI’s crime statistics are grossly underreported. A substantial number of law enforcement agencies no longer report crime statistics to the FBI. Worse, among those not reporting are America’s largest, most crime-ridden, D/s/c ruled cities. This purposeful gaslighting of the American public has allowed D/s/cs to claim crime is down across America, and just in time for the election. What a coincidence! Then along comes Lott, making them crazy again, but will the truth be enough to make a difference in the election? Can it overcome media gaslighting like this:

At the beginning of this year, the media was running headlines like National Public Radio’s: “Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don’t believe it.” “At some point in 2022 … there was just a tipping point where violence started to fall and it just continued to fall,” NPR claimed. But now the FBI has itself admitted its violent crime numbers were way off.

Lott tells us the FBI, in September of 2024, made a stealthy press release noting they updated the 2022 numbers (FBI reports always run two years behind). The FBI only said it “updated” 2022 numbers, not that the update reveals crime was up 4.5%, which is a 6.6% jump. Keep in mind at least 45% of violent crimes and 30% of property crimes go unreported? Why only 30% of property crimes? People need police reports for insurance reimbursements. Lott notes the FBI underreported 1,699 murders and 54,216 vehicle thefts in 2022, so it’s impossible to credit them with anything approaching accuracy, though it’s clear murder rates are up 9.6%.

Think that’s bad?  The FBI stealthily reported violent crime was up 4.5%, but the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) reported a 29.1% rise. There’s that chasm between what D/s/cs like Kamala Harris claim and American’s “lived experience.”  How bad is it?  This bad:

While the FBI claims that serious violent crime has fallen by 5.8% since Biden took office, the NCVS numbers show that total violent crime has risen by 55.4%. Rapes are up by 42%, robbery by 63%, and aggravated assault by 55% during Biden’s term. Since the NCVS started, the largest previous increase over three years was 27% in 2006, so the increase under Biden was slightly more than twice as large.

The increases shown by the NCVS during the Biden-Harris administration are by far the largest percentage increases over any three years, slightly more than doubling the previous record.

Many Americans think a 911 call generates a police report. Not so. Those calls only generate a dispatch log entry for that day. Even a visit from an increasingly rare police officer doesn’t generate a report unless that officer requests an incident/report number and actually writes a report. Line cops want honest reporting. Their politicized bosses and their political masters, not so much. Report writing is meaningless unless that officer’s agency submits accurate data to the FBI and the FBI honestly reports it (hah-hah! I’m such a kidder). And as I previously noted, particularly in blue cities and states, politicians are loath to admit their policies are crime-ridden, so no reports, no crime.

Normal Americans, going about their lives and trying to find enough money to put gas in the car and food on the table have noticed the gaslighting and the FBI’s descent into a regime protection force and censorious thuggery. Told by politicians and the media “crime is decreasing, and pay no attention to the man behind the curtain,” they’re more than smart enough to understand their smashed car windows, burglarized homes, out of control illegal alien crime, and toothpaste locked up in stores belie those lies. A Rasmussen survey in February found 61% of likely voters think crime is getting worse, and in March, Gallup found crime was American’s second worry after only inflation.

They know the FBI and DOJ are entirely corrupted:

“This FBI report is stunning because it now doesn’t state that violent crime in 2022 was much higher than it had previously reported, nor does it explain why the new rate is so much higher, and it issued no press release about this large revision,” said David Mustard, the Josiah Meigs Distinguished Professor at the University of Georgia who researches extensively on crime. “This lack of transparency harms the FBI’s credibility.”

Graphic: X Screenshot

“Credibility?”  The FBI has credibility?!

Mike McDaniel is a USAF veteran, classically trained musician, Japanese and European fencer, life-long athlete, firearm instructor, retired police officer and high school and college English teacher. He is a published author and blogger. His home blog is Stately McDaniel Manor.