The U.S. will probably be in a major war by 2025, according to General Mike Minihan, head of the air mobility command.  Former vice chief of staff for the U.S. Army General Jack Keane says the U.S. is outgunned and outmanned by the Chinese, and the Commission on the National Defense Strategy recently came out with a report that gives many reasons why we are likely to lose any contest vs. an alliance of Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and other bad actors.  So what would such a war look like?

An optimistic viewer might think goals are limited.  China just wants Taiwan, Russia just wants Ukraine, and Iran just wants to get rid of Israel.

However, leaving aside these obvious targets, the following are clues that the goals are not limited.

1. Russia and China had joint exercises near Japan recently, and a Russian aircraft went into Japanese airspace three times in one day.
2. China is sharply increasing its violent attacks against Philippine vessels and sailors in disputed waters off the Philippine coast.  With so many Chinese vessels in the area, it might be difficult to tell what is just harassment and what is an actual full blown attack until it is too late.
3. Likewise, Taiwan’s defense minister, Wellington Koo, said China’s increased military activity around Taiwan makes it harder to spot potential acts of war.
4. Russian and Chinese incursions into U.S. zones off Alaska have become an increasingly frequent occurrence as well.
5. China has enough advanced missiles not only to destroy nearly every U.S. military base in Asia quickly, but also to target and attack most U.S. Navy warships in the region. 
6. Beijing has specialized satellite-killer missiles created to go into space and knock out military satellites, as well as commercial satellites that provide GPS data.
7. Russia has developed advanced military bases in the Arctic, housing strategic missile defense systems and submarines.
8. A Chinese company runs the Panama Canal, which means if there is war, our ships could be blocked from moving quickly from the Atlantic to the Pacific.

So the worst-case scenario might go like this: Chinese hypersonic missiles wipe out American ships in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, and elsewhere.  Simultaneously, China’s ally North Korea invades the South.  Russian and Chinese forces invade Alaska, creating a corridor for men and material to get into North America.  (Russian troops are already in Nicaragua.)

A “Fifth Column” in the U.S. might help seize critical infrastructure at the same time.  Tens of thousands of Chinese of military age have come into the U.S. due to our open border, and, says Gordon Chang, “the Communist Party is using that open border to infiltrate people who look like saboteurs, and they’re linking up with these secret Chinese facilities like that lab in Reedley, California, that had at least 20 pathogens, including Ebola, and almost a thousand mice that have been genetically engineered to spread disease.  “He adds that “there is a sabotage risk, which is exceedingly high, and it’s not just the Chinese, it’s the Iranians and Syrians and Venezuelans.”

So in a few hours, the United States might be under serious challenge by an axis of evil.  It’s true we have nuclear weapons in a triad — land-based silos, subs, and bombers.  However, our subs are sometimes shadowed by Russian subs; our silos were probably photographed by the various Chinese spy balloons that have passed over the U.S.; and perhaps a first strike, even a non-nuclear one, could take out most of our nuclear forces.  Moreover, if nuclear weapons were not employed against us, we might be reluctant to use them.

I do not have a military background, and no doubt a real war would unfold differently.  But the basic point — that China and Russia and their allies could mount a global, sudden, coordinated attack — is a possibility that we should prepare for.

Image: CristianIS via Pixabay, Pixabay License.