For golfers, it is easy to appreciate that Donald Trump last Sunday was in far greater imminent danger than has been generally reported. 

News reports have publicized that Trump was 400 to 500 yards from the shooter, the distance from his nest by the fence on Summit Boulevard, running adjacent to the 6th hole of Trump International Golf Club, to the green of the 5th hole, across the golf course. 

5th and 6th hole, Trump International.  Routh’s gun and two backpacks found by fence, adjacent to Summit Boulevard.  Source: Google Earth.

This puts Trump at the margin of the AK-47’s reported 400-yard effective range, which gives the impression that President Trump was only remotely at risk.  By contrast, two months earlier, would-be assassin Thomas Crooks was a mere 130 yards away, sighting on a (mostly) stationary target. 

But there is no reason to think Routh intended to fire until Trump was in a near certain kill range of 40 yards or less, which would have occurred in approximately 8 minutes. 

Here is the sequence that would have unfolded. 

Trump and partner Steve Witkoff were putting on the par-3 5th hole when shots were heard, now believed to be the shots fired by the alerted Secret Service agent on the sixth hole. 

A typical golf hole takes four golfers fifteen minutes to play.  Trump is a notoriously fast player, and with only one partner, it is reasonable to assume 11 minutes per hole. 

So let’s pick up the action there.  It is mere steps from the 5th hole green to the 6th hole tee box.  Crossing the cart path, Trump and Witkoff would be looking from the tee box down a short 320-yard, dog-leg right, par four, bounded the entire length by water on the right. 

In golf etiquette, the winner of the prior hole tees off first.  So let’s assume that that is President Trump.  He lines up the shot, completes his pre-shot routine, and hits.  Witkoff does the same.  Elapsed time from the 5th hole green: 3 minutes. 

Both hit solid shots, 220 yards to the fairway at the corner of the golf course, leaving them a 90-yard shot to the 6th green. 

The average walking speed is 2.5 miles per hour.  At this rate, it would take the two golfers approximately 3 minutes to stroll 220 yards to their balls, grateful to have avoided the water.  Total elapsed time: 6 minutes. 

The president and Witkoff quickly pick a wedge for a stock 90-yard shot, both hitting the green.  Elapsed time: 1 minute. 

They now begin what would be the fatal walk to the green, passing directly in front of Routh, no more than 40 yards to their immediate left, and half that distance if they happened to walk closer to the left side of the fairway.  Elapsed time to killing range: 1 minute, or a total of 8 minutes from the 5th hole. 

From a search on Google Earth, there is a clearing, offering a direct, unobstructed shot from the fence to fairway.  It is located some 30 yards from where both golfers had just hit.  But since the assassin’s exact position has not been disclosed, assume only that after camping out for twelve hours, he chose a location with a clear shot to the fairway, roughly halfway between the tee shot landing and the 6th green. 

New reporting confirms that photographers have long known of multiple access points on Summit Boulevard affording an unobstructed view of Trump.

Here would be the assassin’s near exact view, with the fence line at bottom, looking directly onto 6 fairway at Trump International, as it approaches the green, water in the backdrop. 

View from fence, nearby the site of Routh’s stand, to 6th Fairway, Trump International.  Source: Google Earth.