The markets respond to the debate
The media’s post-debate narrative is evolving from “Harris edged the debate,” to “Harris dominated in the debate.” Curiously, at least one headline may have stumbled on the truth, albeit for the wrong reasons. MarketWatch declares that “The market has pronounced a winner from Tuesday’s debate, and it’s Kamala Harris”
Maybe that’s why, as I type, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is plummeting over 500 points… and counting; other stock market indexes are also struggling.
Many events, or perceptions of them, can sway jittery traders and investors. This morning, the Consumer Price Index, a read on inflation, came in slightly hotter than expected at the core level -- increasing 0.3% for the month, versus estimates of 0.2%.
Relatively speaking, that’s still tame-ish, and not enough to justify the stock markets’ extreme negativity. Indeed, the 12-month inflation rate registered 2.5%, the lowest level since February 2021. Moreover, several supposed Wall Street “gurus” insist that inflation is on the right path, including an analyst from BlackRock. Additionally, markets are still pricing what they want -- a Fed rate-cut later this month.
All that preamble to make this point: it is not solely the marginally higher CPI report that is upsetting stock markets today. It is the prevailing Wall Street view that Kamala managed to avoid mind-numbing jabbering, thus crossing the media’s low bar for success. Perhaps unwittingly, MarketWatch may be right -- the markets have pronounced a debate winner, and it doesn’t like it.
Indeed, Trump Media & Technology Group Corp (Ticker DJT), is seen as a proxy for Trump -- i.e., he does well, the stock goes up, and vice-versa. Well, given the bandwagon bias assumption about who won last night’s debate, DJT is down a whopping 15% as I type, close to its lowest level. Obviously, there is minimal correlation between DJT and today’s CPI reading, but there is between DJT and the fleeting perceptions that Harris will get a poll bump.
So here’s the upshot: If the forward-looking markets have “pronounced a winner,” it is not the one they prefer. Stock market indexes continue their debacle today as they anticipate a business-unfriendly Harris administration. Actually, business antipathy may be more accurate, for there are very few in the Biden-Harris administration (or in her campaign) who have business experience. That’s evident in her un-economic proposals.
It appears the stock markets are anxiously contemplating her socialistic tax proposals, including on unrealized capital gains, especially if her anticipated post-debate pump (we’ll see about that) buoys the down-ballot candidates -- markets prefer gridlock, but will tank, if, God forbid, Dems sweep (fortunately, very unlikely).
Today’s MSM does its best to mimic the old Soviet Pravda. Actually, since Pravda incongruously means “truth,” then the likes of ABC and MarketWatch (the whole of legacy media, really) are more aptly described as nèprāvda (misrepresentations, misunderstanding, and untruths -- otherwise known as lies).
Per the nèprāvda-riddled MSM, the markets have pronounced a debate winner. The majority of us -- those who have worked hard to build a tiny nest-egg in hopes of a modest retirement -- are losers. By the way, the DJIA is now down over 600 points, the S&P 500 (with stocks in many retirement portfolios) is also collapsing. Those joyful vibes of Kamala are oscillating towards the abyss.
UPDATE: Eventually, the markets recovered later in the day following the debate. It turns out the imprudent MarketWatch headline may have been ill-considered, to wit:
“The markets don’t seem to be reacting to the debate at all," Don Townswick, equity managing director at Conning, told MarketWatch. The point remains: the initial market-driven headlines were predisposed to favor Harris. As always, markets fluctuate, as do initial post-debate perceptions. What doesn’t change is that Harris’ socialistic proclivities, especially when Bernie and Pocahontas coax her back to her leftist values, will be bad for markets.
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