With just 40 days until Election Day, Kamala Harris finds herself in a precarious position: no Democrat has ever won the presidency while trailing in the final stretch, and only one Democrat -- Barack Obama in 2012 -- has ever won when the race was within the margin of error. Now, with Harris holding a slim 2.7% lead, she faces a historic challenge.

If history is any guide, Harris’s lead may not be enough to secure victory, as even Democrats with larger advantages have gone on to lose.

The 64-Year Polling Curse

Since 1960, Democrats have never won the presidency when trailing in the final weeks of the campaign. On top of that, when the race has been within the margin of error, Democrats have gone 1 for 6, with only Barack Obama in 2012 managing to secure victory in a close race. Every other Democrat who has found themselves within the margin of error in the final stretch has gone on to lose.

Democrats Who Trailed in the Final Stretch and Lost

1. Hubert Humphrey (1968) – Trailing Richard Nixon. Lost.
2. George McGovern (1972) – Trailing Nixon by a wide margin. Lost in a landslide.
3. Jimmy Carter (1980) – Trailing Ronald Reagan. Lost.
4. Walter Mondale (1984) – Trailing Reagan by a large margin. Lost in a landslide.
5. Michael Dukakis (1988) – Leading after the convention but trailing George H.W. Bush in the final months. Lost.
6. John Kerry (2004) – Trailing George W. Bush in the final weeks. Lost.

Only One Democrat Has Won When the Race Was Tight

Kamala Harris’s current 2.7% lead places her in dangerous territory. As history shows, Democrats are 1 for 6 in races that are within the margin of error in the final weeks. Barack Obama in 2012 is the only Democrat to defy this trend, narrowly defeating Mitt Romney by relying on an aggressive voter turnout strategy and dominating key swing states. Obama's win is the sole example in the last 64 years where a Democrat has managed to hold on to a small lead and secure victory.

Democrats With Bigger Leads Who Still Lost

For Harris, even her slim lead may not be enough. History shows that Democrats with much bigger leads have gone on to lose. Here are a few examples of candidates who had significant advantages but still lost the presidency:

1. Al Gore (2000) -- Held a narrow lead in national polls but lost the Electoral College to George W. Bush after a contentious recount.
2. Hillary Clinton (2016) -- Led by 3-4 points nationally, but key swing states flipped to Trump, leading to her loss in the Electoral College.
3. Michael Dukakis (1988) -- Once led by double digits but saw his lead evaporate after a series of missteps, losing to George H.W. Bush.

Republicans Have Thrived in Close Contests

While Democrats have struggled to win when the race is tight, Republicans have repeatedly thrived in these conditions. Five times since 1960, Republicans have entered the final stretch either trailing or with a small lead and gone on to win. Donald Trump’s 2016 victory is a prime example of turning a national polling deficit into a decisive Electoral College win. Other notable Republican successes include:

1. Richard Nixon (1968) – Trailing or tied in the polls but won against Hubert Humphrey.
2. Ronald Reagan (1980) – Trailed Jimmy Carter early on but surged ahead to win in a landslide.
3. George H.W. Bush (1988) – Initially trailing Dukakis but came from behind to win decisively.
4. George W. Bush (2000) – Running neck-and-neck with Al Gore, Bush won the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote.

Can Harris Defy the 64-Year Curse?

With only 40 days to go, Kamala Harris’s narrow 2.7% lead places her in a historically dangerous position. If she falls behind in the coming weeks, history shows that no Democrat has ever recovered from trailing in the final stretch. But even if Harris holds on to her small lead, Obama is the only Democrat in 64 years who has won under similar circumstances. The next 40 days will be critical. Harris must find a way to either widen her lead or execute a flawless voter turnout strategy like Obama’s 2012 campaign. Otherwise, she risks repeating the fate of past Democrats who saw their narrow leads slip away.

Image: AT via Magic Studio