Surprise! Surprise! Our old friend Mr. Unexpected showed up on Friday to deliver an unpleasant message to the Biden “we are going in the right direction” believers. Here it goes:

Job growth in the U.S. slowed much more than expected during July and the unemployment rate ticked higher, fueling fears of a broader economic slowdown, the Labor Department reported Friday.

Shame on Mr. Unexpected. He has a nasty way of spoiling the party, such as the unemployment rate going to 4.3% or the highest since October 2021.

Image (edited) by starline.

Wait. There is more. Is the economy stalling? Take a look:

The start of the third quarter saw a deterioration in business conditions at US manufacturers as new orders declined for the first time in three months, according to S&P Global.

This makes sense as we have seen ‘hard’ US macro data serially disappoint for three months.

S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI falls to 49.6 in July, dropping into contraction for the first time since Dec 2023.

ISM Manufacturing PMI plunged to 46.8 (48.8 exp) - weakest since Nov 2023 (near post-COVID lockdown lows).

Let me translate. Manufacturing is stalling or going down.

Of course, everything is political, and economic reports are very political. This economic data certainly throws a curve at the idea that Biden’s economic policies are working. It’s hard for the Harris campaign to argue that we shouldn’t go back, especially when going back means lower food prices and gasoline.

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