Election complication for the Democrats: Recession indicators flash red

Along with last week’s terrible labor/jobs report, the U.S. economy, led by its technology and manufacturing sectors, is flashing indicators of a likely recession.

That's sent stock markets crashing around the world.

Here's just one issue:

Intel Corp just announced major layoffs amidst sinking shares.

According to Fox News:

Months after the federal government gave Intel $8.5 billion in grants to help bring back chipmaking to the U.S., the company said it is cutting 15% of its workforce, which translates to around 17,000 jobs.

The tech company announced the job cuts as part of a massive cost-cutting and restructuring plan. 

"This is an incredibly hard day for Intel as we are making some of the most consequential changes in our company’s history," Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger said in a note to employees this week. "Simply put, we must align our cost structure with our new operating model and fundamentally change the way we operate."

The ginormous 2021 Biden/Harris Bipartisan Infrastructure Act (BIL) and the subsequent 2022 CHIPS and Science Act can be reasonably said to have largely brought us to this insecure place.  

It is called reaping what you sow.  Since 2021, the Biden/ Harris anti-success in its every infrastructure legislative overreach -- with all-too-predictable crippling deficits and tax burdens for us -- may soon boast a full blown U.S. recession. It’s going, if it happens, to land squarely on the Democrat’s presidential campaign. No excuses, no deflections — even the mainstream media will be highly challenged in their whitewashing efforts.

A 2024 recession will be largely blamed on the Biden/Harris Democratic busy-ness (meddling): over-the-top spending via excessive legislation; hyper, inquisitive, regulation; and practical/managerial  incompetence are all, even now — absent a formal recession -- good talking points for the Democrats’ opposition.

A mere few months ago, Biden and Harris showcased Intel Corp as a prime, saving recipient of federal CHIP cash giveaways, yet Intel is now crashing.

According to Reuters, in a piece dated August 2:

Intel shares sank 26% on Friday in their worst day since 1974 after the chip manufacturer suspended its dividend and slashed its workforce to fund a costly turnaround after losing its once-dominant global position.

The company lost more than $30 billion in market value after it gave a disappointing forecast and said it would cut 15% of its workforce, deepening worries about its ability to catch up with Taiwan and other chipmakers.

With Intel’s descent over the weekend, a negative domino effect has also arrived for a slew of oncoming and associated U.S. manufacturers:

While Intel's manufacturing setbacks are specific to the Santa Clara, California-based company, other chipmakers also sank for a second straight day.

Reuters continued:

Companies selling equipment used in factories run by Intel and other manufacturers fell sharply, signaling investor concerns about the pace of future investments in manufacturing infrastructure. Applied Materials, , ASML Holding  and KLA Corp  all dropped around 8%.

And more bad news from the technology sector comes in conjunction with the lousy jobs report last Friday, adding indictors of recession from AI investors, Reuters noted:

The PHLX chip index sank 5.2%, bringing its loss this week to almost dropped almost 2%, with the dominant seller of AI processors down over 20% from its record high close on June 18.

Heightened worries about a recession, along with quarterly reports from Amazon and Alphabet that failed to impress Wall Street, have fueled doubts about the future pace of investment in AI.

Kamala Harris, remember, was Joe Biden's AI czar, a topic she doesn't understand.

Can Kamala still latch onto AI to prove her chops?

Moreover, we can anticipate more layoffs accruing on the next employment reports from the technology sector (as not yet included in last Friday’s job numbers from the U.S. Department of Labor).

According to the New York Post:

Intel cuts whopping 15K jobs, posts $1.6B loss just months after getting Biden funds:

Intel has been a major beneficiary of the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act, which the Biden administration helped shepherd through Congress at a time of concerns after the pandemic that the loss of access to chips made in Asia could plunge the U.S. economy into recession.

In March, President Joe Biden celebrated an agreement to provide Intel with up to $8.5 billion in direct funding and $11 billion in loans for computer chip plants around the country, talking up the investment in the political battleground state of Arizona and calling it a way of “bringing the future back to America.” At the time, Gelsinger {Intel’s CEO} called the CHIPS Act “the most critical industrial policy legislation since World War II.

The company posted a loss of $1.6 billion, or 38 cents per share, in the April-June period.

With a recession, we will have enhanced security concerns in all sectors affected. Intel’s failure is good news for communist China as it tries, with fair success, to corner the global market in chip technology and sales. As a huge market share of chip and related technology resides with Taiwan, the political and defense costs relating to China’s menacing of Taiwan will increase in proportion to the U.S. failure to secure its own chipmaking resources.

This past Sunday, the Wall Street Journal (which is usually reluctant to talk recession), issued a warning:

Tight Job Market Delivered Widespread Rewards. They Are at Risk.

In July, the unemployment rate jumped to 4.3% from 4.1% and is up nearly a percentage point from the low of 3.4% early last year. The economy added 114,000 jobs, the slowest since late 2020 except for this past April.

The Biden/Harris public relations releases — those that previously declared their U.S. chipmaking infrastructure great ‘successes’-- are now proven again to be, with Intel’s crash, abject failures across the board.

Accordingly, the Biden/Harris current ‘plans’ and ‘unveilings’ of this past July 31 are no more than  pre-election campaign wish lists.

According to a different Reuters report:

NEW YORK, July 31  President Joe Biden's administration plans to unveil a new rule next month that will expand U.S. powers to stop exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment from some foreign countries to Chinese chipmakers, two sources familiar with the rule said.

But shipments from allies that export key chipmaking equipment - including Japan, the Netherlands and South Korea - will be excluded, limiting the impact of the rule, said the sources who were not authorized to speak to media and declined to be identified.

Is a recession coming during the election campaigns?  We are seeing many expert warnings, suddenly.

According to the respected Economic Times of India:

Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, expressed concerns, saying, ‘The Fed is on the verge of turning a win into a loss. Economic momentum has slowed to the point where a rate cut in September might be insufficient. They may need to implement a more substantial reduction than the typical quarter percentage point cut to prevent a recession.’

And from Politico on Friday:

The Biden-Harris administration just suffered a new economic blow.

The data suggests that the job market is now weakening more quickly as high interest rates bite into spending and investment, raising questions about whether the U.S. might be entering a downturn — something few economists were worried about just a couple of months ago.

That’s bad news both for Vice President Kamala Harris as she aims to pitch voters on her candidacy for president, and for the Federal Reserve, which opted this week not to ease off on the economy even as inflation has cooled to below 3 percent.

It appears that Kamala may need to get herself a brand new band -- other than the one she’s hooked up with now.

Image: Recession by Nick Youngson // CC BY-SA 3.0 // Pix4free

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