Media are reporting that V.P. vetting paperwork has been sent out to the following people:

1. Doug Burgum

2. Marco Rubio

3. J.D. Vance

4. Tim Scott

5. Byron Donalds

6. Elise Stefanik

7. Ben Carson

Accepting that the media has this right, which is always circa 50/50 — though yes, the list seems reasonably accurate — how would the prospects rank?

1. Ben Carson.

Positives: What’s not to like?  Everyone’s favorite uncle.  Well mannered, dignified, well spoken, accomplished in his tenure at HUD, loyal to Trump.  Vetted, passionate Christian and would signal to the black community Trump’s commitment to advancing their interests, which could be vital in the key states of Pennsylvania, Michigan (Michigan native), and Wisconsin.

Negatives: May be seen as too extreme on abortion, a key Dem talking point.  Perceived as presidential material if something happened to Trump?  Open to attack as an ”Uncle Tom” by the extreme Dem partisans, but that could work against them.

2. Marco Rubio

Positives: Vastly experienced, perceived as capable of stepping  into the office if required.  Would further solidify the Hispanic shift to the GOP, which could be vital in Arizona; Nevada; and Georgia, which has one of the fastest growing Hispanic communities.

Negatives: Apart from the Dems endlessly bringing up Trump’s 2016 attacks on “Little Marco,” etc. and his SOTU response perceived failure, there are no negatives.  There is a (Dem-promoted) perception that he is lacking energy, but the campaign would take care of that.  The “both from the same state” meme would be easily handled.

3. Tim Scott

Positives: Much the same as Dr. Carson’s, but with the addition of being younger and coming across as more vital.

Negatives: Again, somewhat the same as Carson’s, but with even more Dem scurrilous attacks on his relationship with his girlfriend.  South Carolina brings nothing Electoral College–wise.

4. Doug Burgum

Positives: From central casting as a V.P. or president.  Very wealthy, which could assist the campaign.  Solid in his media work, ”safe pair of hands” if required.  Positive job as governor.

Negatives: Not widely known, not strongly media-vetted.  North Dakota brings nothing to the Electoral College.  Trump and the GOP open to “passes by person of color, woman, for boring white man.”  Does nothing for the WWC, Hispanic, black voters.

5. J.D. Vance

Positives: Young, vibrant, accomplished intellectual with an appeal to young voters.

Negatives: Not widely known, little appeal to non-white voters, not blowtorch-vetted.

Ohio is safe GOP, and having a Senate election with who knows the outcome is not a plus.  May not be perceived as ready to step into the presidency with such a short tenure in the Senate behind him.

6. Elise Stefanik

Positives: A woman.  Experienced in the House of Representatives, a Trump loyalist, endorsed by him for House conference chair.

Negatives: For most Americans, “Elise who?”  Unlikely to be seen as ready to take over as president if required.  Not media-vetted and likely to be “Palin-ized” and attacked as a token as “an insult to women.  Just because Trump chose a woman, it doesn’t mean women would vote for him.”  It is what it is.  New York is safe Dem.

7. Byron Donalds

Positives: Again, much of the same positives as Carson and Scott, and with the Vance youth positives.

Negatives: As Carson and Scott, but with “Byron who?”  Ticket may not be well served with two firebrands.  “Donalds described himself as a ‘Trump-supporting, gun-owning, liberty-loving, pro-life, politically incorrect black man.’”  Not widely vetted, and his criminal charges would be a major Dem talking point.  “A ticket with two convicted criminals” is the last thing a campaign needs to combat.

In the end, history shows that not a single president owed his election to his V.P. winning his home state — not even JFK with LBJ’s help — and voters choose the president based on their perceptions of him.  But on the margins, as with Pence and the Evangelical vote in 2016, the V.P. choice may matter in 2024.

UPDATE (by Andrea Widburg): One other strike against Rubio and Donalds is that, like Trump, they're Florida residents. As a reminder, both Art. II, Sec. 1 and the 12th Amendment say that electors must vote for at least one person on the presidential/vice presidential slate who is from a state other than their own. This goes back to the days when the president and vice president ran separately. It's never been tested now that they're part of a joint ticket. Wisdom suggests that, if Trump has Rubio or Donalds as his Veep, Democrats will try to invalidate Florida's Electoral College count. Of course, if Trump does select one of those men, Trump himself can change his state of residency. The others can't because they're still elected officials in Florida.

Image via PickPik.