In politics, it’s important to remember that even if your preferred issue or candidate is lagging in the polls, the direction in which it (or he) is moving matters. Currently, candidate Trump is moving up on every metric. I’m mindful of the many warnings against hubris: “There’s many a slip twixt cup and lip”; the Yiddish “Mann tracht, Un Gott Lacht” (“man plans and God laughs”); and, of course, Aesop’s “Never count your chickens before they hatch.” However, optimism is a driving force in momentum, so let’s celebrate a bit.

Here, in no particular order, are seven causes for optimism:

One. According to today’s RealClearPolling page Trump’s average lead is +0.9. As a reminder against hubris, eight years ago, Hillary had a +5.8 lead.

Two. Because the national averages can be misleading given that they don’t reflect the all-important Electoral College, what’s currently more interesting are averages from the battleground states. Today’s RealClearPolling page offers an insight into that metric:

Without getting cocky, the reality is that, no matter how many votes Biden gets in Massachusetts or California, those votes don’t get him extra Electoral College votes.

Three. You might have noticed that I spoke about Biden’s Electoral College votes in Massachusetts or California. In past years, I might have mentioned New York, too. This year, though, some political watchers think New York might be in play:

It may seem unbelievable but it’s true: Donald Trump actually has a fair shot at winning New York in this year’s presidential election.

That’s right: The state that tried to bankrupt and jail him could help elect him.

Recent polling has consistently shown Trump well within single digits in the Empire State.

And the state as a whole has been shifting rightward, thanks to weak Democratic leadership and failed policies that have thrown our state into a downward spiral.

The same article notes that Biden’s lead in New York, which was a magnificent 23 points in 2020 according to Emerson polling, is now only six points. That’s a mighty fall.

I actually don’t believe New York is in play because there’s too much reflexive Democrat allegiance in that state. However, I still like knowing that there are enough disaffected Democrats in New York to give rise to a new type of optimism.

Four. Blacks, especially young blacks, are rejecting Biden. Who can forget this frantic CNN election analyst trying to cope with this reality?

‘I'm Like Speechless': CNN's Harry Enten Says Trump 'Careening Towards A Historic Performance' With Black Voters pic.twitter.com/aEKh3WPIDG

— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) June 17, 2024

Five. Hispanics are also rejecting Biden. Democrats assumed that Hispanics would love his open-border policies. They’re discovering, however, that illegal immigration is putting their daughters at the mercy of sadistic sex predators. That’s why, in battleground states, Hispanics are starting to support Trump:

Hispanics in the seven battleground states have been found to trust Donald Trump more on the issue of immigration than Joe Biden, according to a new poll. The states the poll was conducted in include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.  

The poll from Equis was taken from 1,592 registered Hispanic voters across the different swing states and Trump was found to have 41 percent trust on immigration versus 38 percent trust with Biden. The poll was conducted between April 20 to May 5 and was released this week. The margin of error on the poll is +/- 2.6 percentage points for the sample taken from the swing states.  

Six. The misbegotten “hush money” trial so offended Americans—who realized that if they can do this to Donald Trump, they can do it to anyone—that Trump suddenly developed a huge fundraising advantage:

According to the Republican National Committee and the Trump campaign, Republicans raised $141 million in May, a nearly $60 million advantage over the Democrats. The Biden campaign and the Democratic National Committee raised only $85 million in May. Overall, the RNC and Trump reported over $170 million cash on hand, compared to the DNC and Biden's $157 million cash on hand.

As you can see, small-dollar donations matter. If you haven’t already done so, consider donating now. You don’t have to love Trump. You just have to look at what Biden’s done in three-and-a-half years and then understand that a Trump victory is the only thing that will stop the madness.

Seven. To end on a super optimistic note, one new poll—which is an obvious outlier—has Trump up by 10 points:

Former President Donald Trump leads President Biden by 10 points nationally in the 2024 White House race, according to a new poll. 

The Rasmussen Reports survey, released Friday, found 46% of likely voters backing the 78-year-old presumptive Republican nominee for president and 36% supporting the 81-year-old incumbent in a five-way race. 

The Rasmussen poll notwithstanding, there is no doubt that the 2024 election will be a squeaker, although it shouldn’t be. On the facts, America’s and Americans’ well-being strongly favor one candidate, and it’s not Joe Biden.

On the one hand, you have a president whose tenure was marked by a strong economy, strong national security, no new wars, decreasing illegal immigration, lessening Chinese geographic and economic aggression, energy independence, and a government that did not use its power to advance abortion, LGBTQ+ extremism, racial divisions, and anti-Israel and antisemitic fanaticism. Most Americans approve of all these things.

On the other hand, you have a president whose tenure has been marked by stagflation, multiple foreign wars, massive illegal immigration, Chinese geographic and economic aggression, the end of energy independence and affordable energy, and a non-stop push for unlimited abortion, LGBTQ+ extremism, and racial division. The administration has also tacitly approved of the worst kind of anti-Israel and antisemitic fanaticism. Most Americans disapprove of these things.

The only reason the election is close is because American institutions—most notably the media, public education, and entertainment—have relentlessly demonized Trump while covering for Biden’s personal flaws, financial corruption, and massive policy failures. Trump is an eccentric, but he’s no demon and America thrived on his watch. It’s high time that, in the few remaining months before the election, the majority of Americans figure that out.

Image made using an arrow from rawpixel (edited).