As the election season matures and Joe Biden’s deterioration continues in accordance with all known medical protocols, the cries of “They gotta replace Joe,” are mounting to a fever pitch. The tone is one of near-hysteria, not at all justified by the actual circumstances: “Kamala is coming…” “Gavin is coming…” “Meee-shell is coming…”

The impression you get from all this is that many believe that any such action could be carried at a single meeting in some darkened office atop a D.C. high-rise, with a shadowy figure behind a huge desk whispering in a guttural voice, “Get rid of him.” Followed in short order by a single limousine departing from the rear of the White House and a querulous voice whining about not being allowed to finish his ice cream.

Scenarios as simple as this are always a red flag, a sign that somebody -- or many somebodies -- lacks familiarity with the way things actually work. To paraphrase Clausewitz, while political solutions may be simple, the simplest things are the most difficult. And this is no exception.

The problem with “replacing Joe” is that there exist things called “rules.” There are few social or cultural systems more entangled in rules than elections -- always granted that many of these are honored more in spirit than otherwise.

The first point here involves election filing deadlines. The state deadlines for filing as a presidential candidate for one of the major parties have long passed. Over half of these fell in either November or December of last year. About a dozen stretched things out until January or February, while a handful -- Nebraska, Montana, and New Mexico -- held out until March. And there it ended. You can no longer file as a major-party candidate for the 2024 election.

While it’s still possible to file as an independent -- at least in a few states -- that would be a futile gesture at this point. It’s barely conceivable that the Dems would run an independent against their own official candidate, much as I would enjoy seeing it.

Clearly, the time to nudge Joe aside was last year, not in the summer months leading up to the election. That train has left the station, and is now headed for the collapsing bridge at full speed.

Which brings us to primaries (along with the occasional caucus). The primary season too, is over, officially ending on June 10 with the Guam primary, though for all practical purposes it ended in March.  The important thing about primaries is that they apportion delegates. Nobody else seriously ran against SloJoe in this year’s Democrat primaries. So he’s effectively got all the delegates -- 3,894, to be precise. That understood, he goes into the Democrat convention this year with the nomination effectively sewed up.

Is it possible that the nomination could still be overturned? Sure. After two-and-a-half centuries of American politics, it’s clear that just about any damn-fool thing is possible. But the DNC would have to outright steal Biden’s delegates. This would be tricky, to say the least. Biden is a sitting president, not a Bernie Sanders who can be bought off with a house. The delegates are Democrats, but they are largely state party officials, independent of the national party and in particular the DNC. They cannot simply be ordered to switch their votes. They would need to be persuaded, threatened, or bribed. The possibility of this occurring without a massive public blowback is nil.

The Democrats do possess a large number of “superdelegates,” consisting of upper-level party officials, current officeholders, state governors, and former party leaders (Bill Clinton is one of them, but not Hillary). But these number under 800, so there’s simply not enough to overcome the state delegates already pledged to SloJoe (California alone will send around 530, including alternates).

But what if he had an accident chasing after the ice cream truck? In that case a replacement candidate would of course be found -- but that’s a totally different set of circumstances that would require their own distinct acts of Dem chicanery.

So the Dems are stuck with SloJoe, a cheerful thought, considering the speed of his deterioration, the fact that he won’t be able to hide out like he did last time, and that amphetamines have side effects. The party has succeeded in boxing itself in between a degenerate, decaying candidate on the one hand and wrecking the Donk brand in the public eye on the other. Couldn’t happen to a nicer crowd.

It’s time to drop “replacing Joe” in the same roundfile as the “calling off the election” trope. It confuses the issue, frightens the naïve, and displaces rational consideration of possibilities. There are enough challenges in this election. There’s no point in creating imaginary ones.

Image: U.S. Government