It's well known that polls show that President Trump is ahead or closing in on critical swing states. By some counts if he takes just three he wins the election.

But the Trump campaign, which is polished and disciplined, has a lot more in mind than swing states.

A week ago, President Trump confided to donors at a dinner that now even Minnesota (and Virginia) are in play, according to the New York Post:

Donald Trump’s presidential campaign is bullish about its prospects in solid-blue Minnesota and Virginia against President Biden — despite losing both states by wide margins in 2020.

“States like [Arizona], [Nevada], [Georgia] and [North Carolina], based on public polling averages, are clearly slipping out of Biden’s reach,” a Trump campaign official told The Post this week.

“States that should be safe Biden states like [Minnesota] and [Virginia] are now falling into play.”

There's Virginia, of course, which has a significant rural pro-Trump population outside the Beltway and probably a disgruntled-with-Biden one inside the Beltway, but, as the Post continued:

Minnesota is an even tougher ask for Trump, with the state having voted Republican just three times since Franklin D. Roosevelt won his first term in 1932. Dwight D. Eisenhower won the Land of 10,000 Lakes in both 1952 and 1956, while Richard Nixon also took Minnesota in his all-conquering 1972 landslide.

Trump, 77, lost Minnesota by 7.1 percentage points to Biden in 2020 and was defeated in Virginia by double digits.

But the Trump team, despite not having the money advantage that Biden has, is spending money to go after Minnesota.

According to the Associated Press:

ST. PAUL, Minn. (AP) — Former President Donald Trump’s planned campaign visit to Minnesota on Friday will mark his return to a traditionally Democratic state that he has long argued he could carry.

Trump will take a break from his hush money trial in New York to speak at the Minnesota GOP’s annual Lincoln Reagan fundraising dinner. Tickets start at $500, ranging up to $100,000 for a VIP table for 10 with three photo opportunities with Trump. The dinner coincides with the party’s state convention.

AP's tone throughout the piece is jaded and biased, but they did go through some numbers:

Trump came close to taking Minnesota and its 10 electoral votes in 2016, when he fell 1.5 percentage points short of Hillary Clinton in a state that no Republican presidential candidate has won since Richard Nixon in 1972. He returned to Minnesota several times in 2020, but Democrat Joe Biden beat him by more than 7 percentage points when he tried for a second term.

And though they interviewed (and dismissed the views of) experts who said the Trump team could very well be right, they did put their quotes in:

University of Minnesota political scientist Larry Jacobs said that while 2020 was a good year for Biden in Minnesota, he’s not sure the president will be so well positioned this time.

“It looks to me like Minnesota is in play,” he said. “And if Minnesota is in play, Trump’s investment of time and money make sense.”

Which makes sense to a lot of us. And must give the Biden team the night sweats.

Why would Trump, who is cash-and-time strapped, spend any effort at all to win Minnesota if he weren't sure victory were in reach? Everything seems more intense this time, all the issues are trending towards Trump, and the broad drift toward the GOP in that state is obvious. The trend is Trump's friend.

Trump is particularly strong on the economy, on illegal migration, on keeping the U.S. out of foreign wars and avoiding messy foreign policy disasters. The presence of Rep. Ilhan Omar, and her anti-American and antisemitic views, probably draws some voters closer to Trump, too.

But winning Minnesota? While it's hard to imagine this scenario, we all remember how surprised we were in 2016 when blue Wisconsin was won by Trump.

Maybe it's Minnesota's turn this year. If Trump is spending time in this state, internal polls have got to be very good. One can only ask now: What other pleasant surprises for us do they have in store?

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