Over the last few weeks, I’ve received messages from friends, many of whom were concerned about Senator Cruz and the 2024 election.  Well, a new poll confirms that Mr. Cruz will win.  This is from Marist:  Cruz 51, Allred 45.  By the way, the RCP average is Cruz +7.3, and no poll has shown Allred over 45.

Honestly, this race reminds me a bit of the Abbott versus O’Rourke contest in 2022.  What I mean is that O’Rourke spent most of the campaign under 45%.  I don’t think that Cruz will win by 11 points like Abbott, but 7-8 is more realistic.

Why is 2024 going to be different from 2018?

First, Allred will not create Beto’s excitement.  It was crazy around here in 2018, from a Beto office on every street corner, to his brochures flooding your mailbox, to an avalanche of phone messages.  Beto was everywhere, and Allred is not.

Second, President Trump will be on the ballot; he is +8.8 in the latest RCP average.  On the other hand, there is zero, and I mean minus zero, excitement for Joe Biden.  Just ask Democrats!

Third, the Democrats need to protect their one-seat majority.  They start the night at 50-50 because West Virginia is gone.  Maryland may surprise them.  There are tough fights in Montana, Ohio, and others.  In other words, do Democrats want to spend money on another blue Texas fantasy, or would they rather save their current senators?  I don’t know but they ain’t winning Texas.

So Senator Cruz will keep his seat.  Let’s hope that he can be in the majority.

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Image: Gage Skidmore from Surprise, AZ, United States of America, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons, unaltered.