PrintJanuary 2, 2024
Trump on a roll
We are not voting yet.
In fact, it's 10 months away and so much could happen. As they say, a week in politics is a lifetime so 10 months is like a few centuries.
Nevertheless, it's looking good for the former president.
The latest RCP average has Mr. Trump up by 2 in the popular vote and the people betting have him up too.
The bad news is that he is not at 50% or the safe zone. The good news is that he is doing better than 2016 or 2020.
So what happens? I think that Joe Concha may be right:
Yes, he's facing 91 felony counts. Yes, Democrats in blue states are attempting to keep him off the ballot. And, yes, this is Trump we're talking about, who is as undisciplined as any candidate in history. But the country is in such bad shape under President Joe Biden and Biden’s numbers are so low that it’s almost impossible to see voters in the states that matter — including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — helping to reelect him.Biden won by slim margins in all of the aforementioned states in 2020. But his base, especially Black voters, Hispanic voters, young voters and independents, are leaving him in droves. He's currently underwater in terms of approval/disapproval in numerous states, including Democratic bastions like California, Illinois, New York and New Jersey.As for the swing states, the polling shows Biden getting swept by Trump in all seven. Given Biden's age and the perception that he's no longer capable of doing the job, it's difficult to see how he wins another four years regardless of who his opponent is
It's easy to be ahead when the incumbent is at 40%. It's even easier when President Biden is on vacation when there are so many problems on the table. I understand that every president needs a little time off for fishing, golfing and walks on the beach.
However, Mr. Biden looks detached from his job and his inability to address the media does not help.
So it looks good 10 months ahead as long as we understand that it is 10 months ahead.
By the way, former President Trump should select a strong foreign policy person for vice president, such as his former Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo. Why? Because I think that we are going to do be doing a lot of foreign policy talking in 2024.
