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PrintJanuary 13, 2024
The young and the restless voters
Maybe something is brewing out there.
First, we hear that minorities are walking away from Democrats. And now we hear that young people are restless.
This is from Ruy Teixeira, the man who made "demography is destiny" famous:
Data from the Split Ticket analytics site, based on an average of December cross-tabular data, show Biden carrying 18-29 year olds by 11 points, a 12-point pro-Trump shift relative to Catalist estimates from 2020. Similarly, pollster John Della Volpe collected a number of mostly December 18-29 year old crosstabs on his site. These crosstabs average out to a 6-point advantage for Biden among voters under 30, a 17 point shift toward Trump relative to 2020.
How did that happen?
Maybe we underestimated the political passions of the young.
Mr. Teixiera points out a couple of things about the young people. Not surprisingly, the border is a big negative. More, they don't want men competing with their sisters in the swimming team. Also, they are concerned that their moms and grandmas are vulnerable to criminals and that criminals are not punished harshly. On energy, they are more pragmatic, believing that "all of the above" is a better approach than phasing out fossil fuels.
And of course, there is the economy. How are their prospects for getting work looking these days? How far do their entry-level salaries go in the era of Bidenflation? What are their options for buying a house? How do they see their futures?
My personal guess is that young people are not in the mood for paying for someone else's education or cancellation of student debt. I guess that this is probably true of the ones who are doing well by working as plumbers, electricians, mechanics or the more entrepreneurial corner of the youth.
We will confirm all of this in November. My guess is that most of the young will vote Democrat but in lower numbers and that's why you will hear a lot about Hitler over the next few months.
