We know that President Trump is gaining in the polls. But how's his campaign doing in deep blue enclaves, such as, oh, among the black- and brown-skinned voters in the South Bronx?

NewsMax reporter Cara Castronuovo heard that President Trump was considering doing a campaign rally in the Bronx, so she did some actual reporting, checking out the sentiment of the man on the street in that solid blue threshold.

What she got was this:

It's not news that President Trump has made some gains among minorities, particularly among black people. People in the inner cities are hit by the triple whammy of Bidenflation, unpunished crime, and illegal immigation undercutting their jobs and wages.

But is the sentiment really that intense? It sounds as though Trump might just get a ticker tape parade if he campaigned in the Bronx.

Now while it's possible the individuals interviewed were cherrypicked to build a narrative, and Castronuovo got as many negative responses as positive or more, the preponderance of data and other evidence suggests that this wasn't the case.

First, Castronuovo says it was not, and acted as surprised as anyone at the response in her statement near the end of the video. She added that didn't have to look hard to find out-there, in-your-face Trump supporters among South Bronx's denizens, having gotten all she needed in a span of 20 minutes.

More significantly, the trend data support her.

A look at the voting maps in this report from Welcome2theBronx, a local outlet showed that the South Bronx went from dark blue in 2016, to light blue in 2020, meaning, President Trump has already made significant gains in the area, with Joe Biden's failed leadership, and it's entirely plausible that Trump's support rocketed upward, as it has in many places. The effect may have been stronger based on the fact that it was already trending to Trump.

Third, there's my own experience -- I've actually lived there, being one of the hardy souls who moved there because the rent was inexpensive but nobody realized that crime had fallen to zero under then-Mayor Rudolph Giuliani in the 1990s. (National Review's Kevin Williamson was another such person who realized the value of the place early and told me he had lived there, too). Living there for a few years while working as a reporter at Forbes was a great experience. My landlord was named Ivan and his family came from Guyana. My good neighbor upstairs was black and worked for the subway. My neighbors across the street were from the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico and frequently flew the American flag, particularly after 9/11. The businesses I interacted with regularly had employees from Jamaica, Guyana, Korea, Senegal and Nigeria, all friendly, and I got to know many of them. I am pretty sure I was the only white in the area in fact but nobody ever noticed such things. They were good hearted, industrious, hard-working, patriotic people for the most part, with many full of immigrant dreams of living the American dream.  

Do I think, 20 years on, that they could vote for Trump? Yes. Without a doubt. Their values were the same as mine, and I could not fathom that they could have a different political leaning, but at the time, they did.

Still, there are reasons for caution: In April 2001, ahead of the 9/11 election day, 56,494 people were registered Republicans, compared to 502,168 registered Democrats, according to New York state voter data, viewable here.

In November 2023, the same voter database shows that 47,866 people were registered as Republicans in the Bronx, and 572,729 were registered as Democrats. That's a minor decline, suggesting that the voters aren't entirely onboard with the GOP agenda in the South Bronx. But they do like Trump.

It's happening. If Trump were to hold a rally in this now-neglected area of New York, subject to high crime and Bidenflation, it would not only be big, it would be humiliatingly big for Joe Biden and his shriveling political base. That would be satisfying to all of us, so let's hope it happens.

Image: Screen shot from NewsMax video via YouTube.