Normal Americans paying attention have long appreciated Mark Twain, who said: “There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.” Where government is concerned, they know government’s statistics must be taken not with a pinch, but with a block, of salt.  

An example is a report from the Federal Department of Education, which claimed during the 2015-206 school year 240 schools reported at least one incident of a “school-related shooting.” At least 240 school shootings in a single year?!  That’s 4.8 school shootings per state—terrible odds. Why is anyone sending their kids to public schools?

Believe it or not, even National Public Radio found that number suspect, and they called every one of those schools, eventually confirming…eleven. NPR is anything but a conservative outlet, but they deserve credit for honestly reporting their results and confirming actual school attacks remain, thankfully, rare.

Many of the schools had no idea what the DOE was talking about. There was nothing resembling a shooting incident at their schools. Others might have had someone fire a round somewhere near the school sometime, or perhaps on a playground on a weekend. A gang shooting might have occurred blocks away. Words and definitions matter, particularly when one can use them to support a favored democrat/Socialist/Communist narrative. One might think it counter-intuitive for the DOE to suggest schools are free-fire zones, yet every child must go to public schools. Logical consistency is not a d/S/C hallmark.

Image: wikimedia commons, public domain

The FBI has long published crime statistics, and for decades was thought to be the definitive source of that information. Sadly, that hasn’t been true for a long time.  For years, many cities, particularly those in blue states, haven’t provided data to the FBI, or have provided only data that reinforces their preferred d/S/C narratives.  To do otherwise would reveal the utter failure of their policies. Defunding and prosecuting the police has consequences. Combine that with the FBI’s politization and weaponization against Normal Americans and Twain’s aphorism might add “FBI statistics” as the worst category of lies.

A case in point is the crime-stopping effectiveness of armed citizens. Credible research indicates up to 2.5 million Americans per year stop violent crimes, usually without firing a shot. The Clinton Administration did a study expecting to find data to support even more gun control. They were certain they’d find virtually no one used guns for good purposes.They found 1.5 million did and tried to bury the study, but it leaked.

The contemporary FBI is no less Clintonesque. From 2014-2022 the FBI identified only 302 active shooter incidents, and claimed armed citizens stopped only 14, just 4.6% of such attacks. If 2.5 million armed Americans stop violent crimes every year, how is that possible? It’s not.

Dr. John R. Lott of the Crime Prevention Resource Center found 440, not 302, incidents for the same period, and found armed Americans stopped 35.7%. The source material was not only police reports, but media reports, which as one might imagine are often inaccurate, or due to media reluctance to report anything positive about guns or Normal Americans, nonexistent. However, Lott is a dogged and honest researcher who makes his methodology and data sets available to anyone who wants to replicate his results. That’s rare in these “trust the science” days, and more so where there is gun/citizen control to be done.

More specifically, in 2022, 41.3% of incidents were stopped by armed Americans. In 2021, 49.1%. In 2020, 37.7%, 29.3% in 2019, dropping to 17.4% in 2014.  Why the drop in previous years? Only recently has the media been more fully, relatively speaking, reporting these incidents.  In 2014, they were much more likely to entirely avoid such reporting.

Even today, d/S/C bias plays a defining role. The media has long shaped the news by simply refusing to report anything counter to their cherished narratives, and by outright lying. But what about the FBI? How did they get this so wrong? How could they have missed everything Lott so easily found and documented?

One should not ascribe to malice that which can be explained by incompetence, but perhaps there is plenty of both involved. That the FBI has become the enforcement arm of the d/S/C Party is blatantly obvious and terrifying. That alone might explain it. One of the most cherished d/S/C narratives is guns are used only for evil, no good can come of them, and they’re virtually certain to kill their owners and families rather than bad guys. An allied narrative is guns have the power to compel their owners to evil acts. Understanding those narratives, as well as base human laziness and incompetence, might explain a great deal.

At the very least, we can be certain in this and much else, Mark Twain was prescient.

Mike McDaniel is a classically trained musician, Japanese and European fencer, life-long athlete, firearm instructor, retired police officer and high school and college English teacher.  His home blog is Stately McDaniel Manor.