The candidacy of Ron DeSantis has fallen to fifth place in the latest New Hampshire poll, the latest bad news for a campaign that has not fulfilled its early promise.  Byron York writes in the Washington Examiner reports:

“A new poll Wednesday from the University of New Hampshire shook up the world of political obsessives who watch each twist and turn in the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. No, there was no change at the top — former President Donald Trump is still in the lead in New Hampshire, 26 points ahead of the nearest competitor. The news was that Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), for a long time Trump's chief rival, has slipped to fifth place in New Hampshire, the second state to vote in the GOP primary contest.”

How does it happen that a wildly successful governor of an important state, re-elected in landslide after a squeaker victory in his first term, belly flops so badly? Especially when backed by big money donors (who now reportedly are seeking other alternatives to Trump)? I ask this as a general question about the nature of presidential campaigns, not as someone desperate to stop Trump’s nomination.

Byron York offers some possible explanations:

"The biggest problem I see for DeSantis is that the cultural campaign he has been waging simply doesn't resonate with New Hampshire Republicans," said Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, which conducts the Granite State Poll. "I am still surprised he's pushing anti-woke rhetoric in New Hampshire. He also peaked too early and became a target of Trump, which prevented him from peeling off some Trump supporters."

That may be true in New Hampshire and some other states, but does not explain the broader failure of DeSantis to catch fire nationally. Some other possibilities from York:

"DeSantis has zero on-the-ground presence," he said. "His national flailings, drama, and message windmilling have scared off folks with little hope of attracting new folks. The Reagan Library debate has to be his breakout moment or..." He let the sentence trail off after that.

That last, incomplete sentence alludes to what I believe may be a big issue nationally. A perceptive reader, a DeSantis supporter that has been following his campaign, has observed that the governor behaves differently campaigning for president than for governor. She writes (edited)

He's running a horrible presidential campaign and can't get his act together in how he communicates. There’s no softness, no compassion, just tension and defensiveness, which is likely getting worse in the face of his polling.

He just defends, defends, defends, hammers away, bobbles his head, gets bug-eyed, and raises his voice into a horrible pitch.

And you know what was fascinating during the recent hurricane that hit Florida?

I was watching him / listening to him give press conferences, and it was the good old Ron that we all love -- in command, voice in lower register, no bobbing head!

In charge.

But on the campaign trail for president, you see little of that, and instead get a not-ready-for-prime-time person who just keeps digging the hole deeper.

I feel so incredibly disappointed and angry, as well.

My interpretation of this observation is that DeSantis has psyched himself out. That he may feel insecure and under-prepared on the presidential stage. This is reflected in what Don Brown wrote about here on Friday, critiquing DeSantis’s debate performance when Bret Baier asked a question:

"The U.S. has committed nearly $77 billion in aid to the Ukraine war," Baier said.  "The administration is now asking Congress for $24 billion more.  Regardless of the specific — specifics of that plan, is there anyone on stage who would not support the increase of more funding to Ukraine?"

 (snip)

Looking around to see how other candidates would respond, DeSantis literally raised his hand halfway up and, without committing fully one way or the other, half-heartedly declared that "Europe needs to step up. ... I would have Europe step up and do their job" — as if he had power over Europe, and as if Ukraine were a member of NATO, which it is not.

So, DeSantis distinguished himself as wishy-washy….

I am tending toward accepting this explanation for DeSantis’s shocking failure to take off. He’s simply not ready for the national stage. Too bad that he is term limited from a third term as Florida’s governor. His performance in that role has been spectacular.

I hope that he can find his way to national office eventually. Perhaps after a period of study of foreign relations, which may be the source off his insecurity.

Photo credit: YouTube screengrab (cropped)