PrintThe bloody Ukraine finale
There are important developments coming out of in Ukraine this month. It appears their battle to push south to the Sea of Azov has reached “culmination,” as the Ukraine reserves are breaking past Robotyne and the main line of Russian resistance. Russia has committed its last reliable reserves, the already beaten-up 76 Guards Air Assault Division. Reports are that most of the soldiers still fighting for Russia in this sector, however, are just support units, not infantry.
For some reason though, many conservatives, Tucker Carlson and Charlie Kirk among them, continue to fall for the nonsense peddled by Douglas MacGregor, aka Col. Blowhard. He insists Vlad Putin is just a traditional Christian, and the war is dragging on because he wants to “go easy” on his Ukrainian cousins. Col. Blowhard predicted this month there would be a massive Russian offensive that would capture Odessa. When that did not happen, he claimed Ukraine had suffered 400,000 soldiers killed, effectively ending their army’s chances. Another fairy tale he could not defend.
As I explained back in June, Ukraine has essentially one good punch left this year against the teetering Russian bear, and they would be careful not to squander it. They have spent the summer preparing the battlefield to cut off the exhausted Russians south of the Dnipro. If they do that, there might be a ceasefire on favorable terms and this bloody mess could come to an end, no thanks to Joe Biden & Co., who are still dithering over when and where to send every bullet. Joe’s team just said they would release F-16 fighters to Ukraine, but they won’t join the fight until next year. And Biden will still not send the ATACMS missile system, the weapon that would knock out the Russian heavy artillery, their most effective battlefield weapon.
This is all so unfortunate, as the whole bloody war only began because Putin saw the incredible weakness of Joe Biden after the Afghanistan fiasco. It also greatly mattered that Biden was killing off American energy independence and driving up the price of oil. Putin knew the pain of international sanctions could be offset by selling more expensive oil to places like China and India.
Convinced he had another president as clueless as Obama, Putin decided to risk an all-out invasion. People make fun of Donald Trump and his tough guy posturing, but as the Iranians and Wagner mercenaries found out, he never hesitated to use deadly force. Dictators worry about such cold-blooded Western leaders.
Still, this just forced the Ukrainians to improvise. They have driven away the Russian Black Sea fleet and wrecked the Kerch bridge with innovative anti-ship air and sea drones. For the last year, they have been attacking Russian airbases and even Moscow targets with commando teams and long-range drones. The Russian naval blockade has been defeated, as grain ships are once again moving out of Odessa with wheat the world’s poor countries need.
Up until now, Ukraine has husbanded resources and kept casualties low. As the battle south for the coast continues in September, though, the Russians will throw in everything they have left, and Ukraine casualties will mount as they press forward.
If we had a competent President and State Department, one might expect both sides would eventually want a way out and welcome an American-brokered cease-fire. That obviously won’t happen here, but perhaps the Germans, and other NATO members Putin might trust, can still work a deal.
The one bright spot in all this must at least involve China, which has the same sort of incompetent, Russian-style military. Xi Jinping has to be rethinking any attack on Taiwan at this point. Russia had the overwhelming advantages of force and an easy, overland route to the heart of Ukraine, yet was driven off by an amateur army with a hodgepodge of weapons.
The Republic of China (Taiwan) by contrast, is armed to the teeth, with modern airplanes, missiles, and ships, and literally millions of well trained and armed regular and reserve soldiers. There is virtually no good place on the Taiwan coast to conduct an amphibious landing, assuming an invasion fleet could even make it over a hundred miles across the open waters of the Taiwan Strait. Even some of the most China-favoring war games suggest they would not just be defeated, but ruined.
Ukraine may at least be the last truly big war the world has to endure for now.
Frank Friday is an attorney in Louisville, KY.
