The overwhelming evidence present in the public domain today strongly suggests that the United States of America will separate into two countries in less than fifty years.

Here is the scenario concept.  The conservative and progressive sides of America today see each other as a lifeguard and a drowning victim.  Neither side will keep the other from drowning when push comes to shove.  The only option is for the lifeguard to let go of the drowning victim.  This event is the physical separation.  The conceptual separation has been playing out for about three decades.

The topics of abortion, gun rights, balanced budgets, central bank digital currencies, immigration, and free speech, either alone or together, can all be set aside with assurance they are not the reasons for the pending dissolution of the country.  The single reason for the U.S. going into parts is free choice.

The U.S. will not change to a bordered country such as the Soviet Union, since geography has 50% of its border bound by water and the other 50% absent of both a northern and southern border.  Ask Canada and Mexico how immigration control is going for them lately.  It is unlikely there will be mass deporting of citizens due to the risk of those deported coming back with a vengeance, helped by whatever country accepts them.  Ask Germany and Russia how that worked out for them during World War II.

A recent venture capitalist article indicates how geography, demographics, and capitalism intersect to likely help form the two new countries.

A country needs two tangible components to survive: trade and defense.  Trade for all material things necessary to exist in both war and peace.  Defense for continuance during and after an armed conflict.  Ask any losing side of any conflict how things went for them when they ran out of resources to continue their fight.

The loose strategy playing out over the past two to three decades has been to push for the separation of the states.  Neither a December 1941– nor a September 2001–type attack will move enough people today to care for and help one another.  The division is too great on both sides.  Fueling the fire of this division are the many unnamed nations hoping the demise of America is sooner than later.  I leave it to you to name them.

Both the November 2022 and 2024 elections will be difficult for America.  Both the winners and the losers will be unsatisfied and want more from each side.  These wants are more splashing in the water between the lifeguard and drowning victim thought construct.  Something will break in America along the way.  I am not sure what it will be today, but whatever it is, it will be a no-going-back event.  How do I know?  The past 15 years of American history confirm that yesterday is not enough to live tomorrow, because effort today does not contain the work necessary to deliver the outcomes required to remain united.

Both sides of America today, the conservative and progressive, will be the construct of these two new countries.  There is insufficient representation of the remaining segments of America today to form anything close to a self-supporting nation.  It is unlikely they will be able to grab any land to serve as a colony for any nation existing either today or tomorrow.

American ambivalence is the theme playing out before the world today.  It is not a matter of want that prompts me to pen this writing.  It is a matter of need — need driven by the inescapable certainty that a divorce is similar to a lifeguard letting go of a drowning victim.  There is no good outcome to either a divorce or a drowning.  It is a matter of living with the consequences.  There are regret and often many what-if thoughts bouncing around for eons.

I foresee that ambivalence or apathy would get the job done should I desire to strategize how to end a nation.  The world has America today embracing both options.  This embrace is new to America in the past decade.

I wish things were different, as I do not desire America to end.  However, in the absence of supporting evidence to the contrary, I can only conclude that America will not make with the disunity it has today.  America will either get a kick in its backside beyond anything I can imagine to cause it to want to remain united or be finishing the property settlement of its divorce soon than later.

I hope America stays together.

Stephen Dawson is an executive consultant of technology and business strategy, serving significant international organizations by providing leadership consulting, strategic planning, and executive communications.  Contact him at service@shdawson.com.

Image: Don Hankins via Flickr, CC BY 2.0.