The Ukraine war is turning out to be a big headache for Russia's leader, Vladimir Putin, because he greatly overestimated his ability to easily replace the Ukrainian government with his own puppet administration under Russian control.

After the cakewalk in 2014, when Putin annexed Ukraine's Crimea and some of the Donbas region through the use of non-uniformed special forces and drew little in the way of sanctions, Putin probably thought taking over all of Ukraine would be a piece of cake with similar results.  It seems that Putin tried three times to capture or kill Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky through use of non-uniformed special forces but failed.  He was also a little delusional in thinking the Ukrainian people would welcome Russian troops with open arms and offer little or no resistance.  Well, he was quite wrong, and most Ukrainians want no Russian overlords telling them what to do.

Putin amassing a boatload of tanks on the Ukraine border and then invading Ukraine is old-school strategy harkening back to World War II and the Iraq war.  The aim here was probably to instill fear of massive destruction, which would result in a quick capitulation of the Ukraine government.

There are no massive tank vs. tank battles in Ukraine, and Ukraine is not using many tanks in the fight.  Tank battles have major drawbacks, as they are vulnerable to running out of fuel and heavy ammunition.  That Russia has a problem with that logistically is obvious for all to see now.  So far, little ammunition is being used and supplying fuel in the vastness of Ukraine is a major logistics problem.

On the Ukraine side, deadly accurate one man–operated Javelin missiles have been used instead of tanks to take out invading Russian tanks at up to three miles' distance, so one can really ask whether Ukraine has become a testing ground for the latest in U.S. military technology.

Both Russian and Ukraine troops are mostly young, green, or inexperienced in warfare and with little will to fight.  It may be anecdotal or gossip, but apparently, one captured Russian soldier was asked why he was in Ukraine, and his answer was that he thought he was on a training mission.  Another lost Russian tank soldier apparently asked the locals for the direction to Kyiv.  It seems that the Russian soldiers were lied to about the real reason for being in Ukraine, and their realistic motivation or real reason to fight seems to have been almost totally missing or inadequate.

Poor Russian logistics support is also obvious since the soldiers did not sleep in tents overnight but had to sleep in their tanks and vehicles or outdoors on the cold ground.  A tank army fights on its stomach and needs fuel.  Some were sent out with a three-day food supply.  Some Russian troops were observed stealing food from grocery stores.

If a tank rides through city streets without destroying something, then what is the purpose of the tank?  Intimidation may be the reason, but people in Kyiv were ready to attack tanks with Molotov cocktails, the famous glass bottles filled with gasoline that, when lit with a rag, explode and burn on impact.

The key to a Russian victory is the capitulation of Kyiv, and so far, Kyiv is doing rather well, with little destruction and open access to the south.  Surrounding Kyiv, the size of about four Manhattans, is going to be difficult.  Kiev still has water, electrical power, and the internet, so destroying this infrastructure will probably be the next step.  About 3 million starving people may be the result, and it won't be a pretty sight if it happens.  Bombing Kyiv into rubble is also a possible option for Putin, but if he kills more civilians, he will go down in history as a dictator as genocidal and evil as Hitler.  Putin is now a pariah in most of the civilized world, but if he razes Kyiv, he will be evil incarnate.  That's a far cry from the peacekeeping military force that Putin's propaganda advertised.

The economic sanctions are also biting the Russian people.  Through a Russian friend, I learned that in the large southern Russian city of Volgograd, all the grocery stores are empty of food, while other business establishments have closed their shops.  Fear of imprisonment is a reason why many people are whispering to one another about the Ukraine war and not overtly protesting it.  One jewelry store–owner took all the jewelry to a safe place and closed the shop.  There have been protester arrests throughout Russia, and the media are heavily censored, so Putin is desperately still trying to propagandize his version of the Ukraine invasion as merely being a peaceful pacification attempt, which includes the elimination of "fascist" elements in Ukraine.

NATO has been re-energized, with Germany raising its contribution from 1 percent to 2 percent of GDP and then some.  Germany is buying F-35 fighter jets from the U.S.  Finland and Sweden are seriously considering becoming NATO members.  Europe is talking about a five-year plan to wean itself off Russian gas, oil, and coal.

Putin's dream of restoring Russia's borders to Soviet-era boundaries is coming to an end in the long run because the Ukraine invasion was a wake-up call to Europe, which will ensure that this annexation of Eastern European countries by Russia does not happen.

Putin is in too deep in Ukraine to pull out now, so it may not be possible for him to save face and reach some kind of peaceful agreement with Ukraine.  Agreement is probably possible if Ukraine totally surrenders to Russia or promises to not join NATO and gives up parts of eastern Ukraine and a handful of cities along the Black Sea coast.  Yes, peace is probably still possible in the near or distant future after three weeks of warfare, but all in all, the Ukraine war has been Putin's folly.

Image: Screen shot from WION video via YouTube.