Article 231 may rightly deserve the notorious distinction as being the 20th century's single greatest miscalculation.  Any miscalculation in the application and enforcement of the severe economic sanctions levied against Russia in response to its recent invasion of Ukraine may turn out to be the 21st century's single greatest.

Article 231, also known as the War Guilt Clause, was part of the Treaty of Versailles, negotiated as conditions of peace for ending World War I.  The resolution "placed all blame for inciting the war squarely on Germany, and forced it to pay several billion in reparations to the Allied nations."

This miscalculation is found in the intent of the War Guilt Clause, which was to take all the bite out of the German Pinscher's mouth, by crippling, for generations to come, the German economy to subsistence, subservient levels, so it should never again be able make war on its neighbors . However, it would be its severe enforcement that, as historians assert, led to the broad support among Germans for political and cultural promises contained in the evil and maniacal barking of Adolf Hitler.

In other words, it was, at least in part, "[d]ue to lasting resentment of the Versailles Treaty [that]  the National Socialist (Nazi) Party ... w[as] able to gain support in the 1920s and early '30s by promising to overturn [the Versailles Treaty's] harsh provisions and make Germany into a major European power once again."  That regained power would soon assert itself by provoking a second world war and committing the horrific atrocities of the holocaust.

The NATO and U.N. countries' severe response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which admittedly has been swift and mostly unified (with a few exceptions glaring as bright as the rising sun in eastern skies), seems primarily intended to cripple Putin's ability to wage and sustain a prolonged military campaign in Ukraine, first by crushing Russia's economy.

The international move to economically level Russia today represents a blockade unprecedented in scope for a regional conflict.  The current measures seems so similar in intent to those underlying Article 231 of the Treaty of Versailles as to be considered a sort of "pre-emptive War Guilt Clause" — in short, to decimate an adversary's war-making capability by destroying its economy.

This strategy to make Russia an international pariah and pauper, rather than preventing Russia's war with Ukraine from escalating into World War III, may just as easily precipitate World War III.  This is especially so when a U.S. senator makes an outrageous and ill advised call, unbecoming of the office, for Russians to "take out Putin."  Even more so when a similar, though more diluted, less threatening call for "regime change" in Russia then comes from the so-called leader of the free world, the obviously enfeebled, reckless, and politically desperate President Biden.

Instead of turning on Putin, the Russian people may perceive in these threats, even those who deplore him, his leadership, and his war, cause enough, in the interest of defending and preserving their national pride and self-respect, for rallying around Putin and his sociopathic geopolitical and expansionist designs.

Furthermore, we must not miscalculate today's generation of Russians' willingness to endure severe economic deprivation.  There are many Russians alive today who vividly recall the oppressive economy and government of the Soviet Union, when it was commonplace to wait years for an automobile, apartment, or refrigerator.

Nor should we miscalculate their willingness to fight.

The U.S. and allies shouldn't be buoyed too much that reports of low morale and poor performance among Russian troops fighting in Ukraine is an indication of how they will perform matched up against American and NATO troops.

Any problems with Russian troop morale may be due more to a fraternal affinity between so-called former "compatriots" and a visceral reluctance to take up arms against them for dubious justifications, than to any actual systemic Russian military unpreparedness, unwillingness, or unfitness to fight.

We may also discover current generations of Russians better equipped mentally and physically, because they have been much less weakened in mind and fortitude by decades of toxic exposure to institutionalized moral relativism and secular progressivism than their contemporaries in America and other NATO countries.  They may therefore be better able to respond with the same obstinate resistance and perseverance exhibited by their grandparents and great-grandparents against the Nazis during the Siege of Leningrad and the Battle of Stalingrad.

In closing, the current economic, non-military strategy against Russia is a good and effective one for the international community to take.  However, it must be implemented with great sobriety and retrospection to ensure that its noble intent is not found to be contradicted by the effects of its enforcement, as happened in the wake of Article 231.  Otherwise, the post–Cold War world may yet again plunge over the precipice.

Image: World Economic Forum via Flickr, CC BY-NC-SA 2.0.