Go look at the VAERS COVID Vaccine Mortality Report to know why Pfizer wants FDA protection for its vaccine research along with 75 years of document secrecy.  While there are all sorts of ways to interpret the VAERS data, and it's entirely possible that the vaccine is safer than COVID, not only have many people probably died from the vaccine, but there's also still no way of knowing what the vaccine's long-term effects are.

Some experts have calculated that only about 1% of adverse reactions are ever reported for various reasons in the U.S.  This could be due to minor symptoms, unfelt symptoms, or the amount of time and bureaucracy a doctor must go through to make a report.  Some reasonable conservative estimates are that deaths due to the COVID vaccine in the U.S. are around 140,000.  Keep in mind that this analysis does not distinguish the factor that deaths are much more highly likely to be reported in VAERS than more minor symptoms.

If you assume that 80% of deaths are reported (80/20 rule) and that VAERS reports 19,552 deaths, then the number of COVID deaths due to vaccines is much more likely around 24,440 between 2020 and 2021.  The number of adverse deaths per prior years was about 400, or something over 5,200 deaths during the previous 30 years.  At first look, these numbers are startling.

Consider, however, that ~100,000,000 Americans were vaccinated in 2020–21, and if there were 24,440 deaths, then the probability of near-term death from the vaccine is very low.  The Adverse Reaction Fatality Rate (ARFR) is about 0.0002% (2 in 10,000).

This is much lower than the general COVID Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) of 0.013% (130 in 10,000).  Using the VAERS-reported 19,552 numbers, the probability is virtually the same as my number at 0.0002% of near-term death (2 in 10,000).

Image: Injection (edited in befunky).  Piqsels.

Using the "conservative" estimate of vaccine-related deaths of 140,000 compared to 100,000,000 vaccinations (100M/140K), you still have an ARFR of only about 0.00014% 0.0014% (14 in 10,000), which is much better than the disease's IFR (130 in 10,000).

Although unlikely in the case of deaths, the original 99% VAERS under-reporting implies that a total of 1,955,000 (19,552 x 100) people have died due to adverse reactions to the 100,000,000 vaccinations.  If this is true, then the ARFR is 0.096% 0.0196.% (1.96 in 100), or a 98.04% vaccine survival rate, which is very slightly worse than the IFR of COVID at 0.013% (1.3 in 100), or a 98.7% disease survival rate.  Since the difference is probably not statistically significant, given the likely probability ranges of the data, it is a toss-up as to whether you will die from COVID or the vaccines.  Still, the chances of either are pretty low.

Could we have missed almost 2 million people dying from the vaccinations?  I have no idea, but I do believe we have significantly over-counted the COVID deaths in the U.S.  Meanwhile, we have likely undercounted the vaccine-related deaths — especially given the MSM's bias to the left, Democratic political pressure, the Deep State, and the pressures on physicians to go along with the general COVID panic.

In the end, I'm going with my own estimate that the vaccines are safer in the near term than the disease, but the jury and data are still way, way out on the long-term effects.  I have not looked at data about the severity of the non-lethal reactions people have experienced from the vaccines, either.

This confusion, guesswork, misreporting, and secretiveness are all surely part of the reason why so many Americans still do not want the vaccination.  It is also probably why Pfizer, which has experienced the highest number of vaccine-related deaths reported on VAERS, at 13,039 souls (66% of the total), wants its information protected for the next 50 or 75 years.  The company may want millions of potential victims long gone before any real research into its methods and outcomes can be done, and the subsequent lawsuits are possible.

UPDATE: Although all of the ultimate data in this post is accurate, there were two typos which we have corrected.

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