Newsmax speculates on the possibility of Mitch McConnell leaving the Senate.  The premise of its investigation centers on the Kentucky state Legislature moving forward with a bill to strip the commonwealth's governor of the authority to appoint replacement members of Congress when a vacancy occurs.  Setting aside splashy tabloid headlines like this one, the larger question is how many establishment types in the GOP have given serious consideration to their own exit strategy following the Trump "love fest" that was CPAC 2021.

It's hard to accept the prevailing wisdom from outlets like FiveThirtyEight when they report that the 2022 map will be an uphill climb for Republicans because three senators already announced they aren't running for re-election.  Nate Silver and his ilk have a checkered history, at best, reading the conservatives in the room.  The same sort of maniacal laughter and hand-wringing can be found on CNN and at Politico, as the left licks its chops for what its members clearly believe will be a wholesale slaughter of all things GOP in the next election.  The stories of demise from these outlets seem to have died down over the last several weeks.  Still, they clamor that any news of an establishment Republican stepping down equates to the end of conservative representation across the country.

It's hyperbolic, to say the least.  It's also tone-deaf.  In MAGA country, the writing is on the wall.  Georgia freshman congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene seems to be catching lightning in a bottle with her "three yards and a cloud of dust" approach of slamming headlong into the Blue Wall in the House of Representatives.  It provides a stark contrast to incumbent Adam Kinzinger, who appears to have alienated even his family members.

Sure, some districts are reddish purple.  Representatives from such places who fly the GOP flag are in a position to get by on establishment bona fides.  It's not at all different from districts that are blueish purple for centrist Democrats.  These middle-ground folks are the exception and not the rule in the polarizing world of American politics today.  Districts and states demonstrated this in the November election.  Outside North Carolina (1.3%) and Florida (3.3%), Trump won all the other states he carried by at least five percent.  In fact, of the twenty-five states President Trump won, he held twenty by double-digit margins.  By comparison, President Biden won twenty-six states (including D.C., not a state yet) and carried sixteen by double-digits.

It points to an exciting strength indicator for the MAGA movement.  Trump's twenty-state wins by double-digits, compared to Biden's sixteen, offer a 56-44 split between which he has the more substantial base of electoral support.  It suggests that Republicans have more breathing room with their messaging — especially those newly elected like MTG from Georgia — than their counterparts across the aisle.  It also means that the GOP establishment types who have traditionally leaned into centrist politics may see their days numbered.

With Trump carrying eighty percent of his state victories by double digits, the MAGA movement is still full speed ahead, regardless of who is at the helm.  It doesn't bode well for waffling Republicans in Congress as each vote, statement, and tweet is under a microscope for GOP constituents licking their wounds the last four months.  Perhaps Mitch McConnell has ridden his pony as far as he can.  More importantly, maybe, he knows that this is the case and is looking to get out of Dodge with what loot he can carry — and quick.

Image: Gage Skidmore.