The hysteria that has gripped our nation over the coronavirus scare is based on numbers generated through mathematical modeling created by public health experts.  Such models take into account the aggressiveness of the infection or amount of cross-contamination, the lethality or death rate of those infected, and the likelihood of hospitalization.  These models are used to help make recommendations that might save lives.  At Thursday's coronavirus task force briefing, our newest hero, Deborah Birx, M.D., provided some reassuring news and hope for a less hysterical future.  She is clear-spoken, to the point, and honest.  She uses her ambassadorial skills to calm our nation.

The news out of NYC and the metro area is troubling.  Five counties of the ten with the greatest numbers of coronavirus infections nationwide are located in the N.Y. metropolitan area.  As of Thursday, there were 37,000 cases with 385 deaths.  NYC is critical to the financial and communications industries.  As a cosmopolitan city, travelers from all over the world pass through the region.  This helped seed the area before the travel ban from Europe was instituted.  Further, the mayor and his staff encouraged activities (in crowds) and public transportation through subways and buses far too long into the transmission period.  A densely populated area is most at risk for spreading any communicable disease.

Dr. Birx referred to models created by British experts indicating that up to 500,000 Brits could die from the virus.  Now they have readjusted their number of dead to 20,000.  That is a 25-fold drop.  In those models, they estimated up to 2.2 million deaths in America, with over 60 million infected (20%).  Dr. Birx indicated that the data (now substantial since 550,000 tests have been done) do not justify these fearsome numbers.  She further indicated that there are no data to support frightening claims by Mayor Bill de Blasio that up to 50% of New Yorkers would be infected.

The data show that analysis should not be generalized throughout the nation.  Instead, we need look at hotspots as individual spread curves.  She indicated that areas of concern include Chicago and Detroit.  We see a spike in New Orleans as a result of the Mardi Gras celebrations with many vacationers.  Soon another spike may occur in the northeast because of spring break vacationers.  Preventing travel seeding appears most critical.

Further work on vaccines and treatment modalities discussed by Dr. Fauci means that production of these items will proceed simultaneous to positive scientific studies.  So should a seasonal cycle appear next fall, we will be ahead of the virus.  All of this gives hope.

If the data continue to indicate this trend, then President Donald Trump's wish to begin opening up America again may come true.  Clearly, hotspots will be delayed, but with several states possessing 200 cases or less, a more nuanced approach is needed.  Faster testing methods are coming online, which will make analysis easier.  The movement of the USNS Comfort to NYC will help lessen the burden on city hospitals.  Building new facilities at the Javits Center will also help. 

The number of unemployment applications hit a new record of 3.28 million.  Yet the stock market showed great gains.  This resulted from the good news that the Senate had passed legislation.  Friday the House will do the same.  Then the recovery can begin.  It will be a long slog to get back to February levels, but Americans are a hardy people.

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