Bernie Sanders wins the Nevada caucuses. Democrats hardest hit.
That Bernie Sanders has won the Nevada caucuses is a one-line story: Bernie won in Nevada.
The real story is the absolute horror that establishment Democrats are experiencing as they realize that Bernie momentum leaves them with only two choices at the Democrat party convention in July: Yield to the passionate base and anoint Bernie as their candidate, despite the probability (although, sadly, not the certainty) that he will lose spectacularly; or they can override the passionate base and, in a backroom deal, give the nomination to someone else, yielding to an equally spectacular schism in the party as the Bernie Bros get angry.
Here’s the straight news portion of this post: As of this writing, Bernie Sanders is the undisputed winner of the Nevada caucuses. Although counting is going slowly, his lead in the districts counted is so complete that Bernie is already declaring victory, as are most in the media:
We just won the Nevada caucus. This grassroots movement is unstoppable. Together, let's win the Democratic nomination, defeat Trump and transform the country! Join us live in San Antonio: https://t.co/XB1Ua14x8m
— Bernie Sanders (@BernieSanders) February 23, 2020
It's unlikely that this will change when all of the precincts have reported. Not all is rosy, though, because Bernie’s win was apparently unaided by the minority voters who are essential to a Democrat victory in November:
awful results for democrats
— Thao Nguyen (@helloitsthao) February 22, 2020
dem caucus electorate
2016: 19% latino / 13% black
2020: 17% latino / 10% black
this is despite the state becoming more diverse
it’s consistent with other data showing both falling support and enthusiasm for democrats among non-whites (esp latinos) https://t.co/9czkg0ZUXT
Now to the fun part of this post, which is seeing establishment Democrats (all leftists but none as left as Bernie) terrified that they're watching their party implode. And no, this is not a re-hash of Republican concerns in 2016. Back then, while the establishment disliked Trump’s style, his message was mainstream and consistent with American values through the end of the 20th century. Bernie, on the other hand, is charting an entirely new direction for America.
Zac Petkanas worked for Hillary Clinton’s campaign and worked for Harry Reid. In a tweet he later deleted, he stated "We are watching Trump win re-election in real time. Just a disaster." He deleted that tweet after pushback, but continued to worry.
Battleground states & swing Senate/House seats are more conservative than the electorate as a whole
— Zac Petkanas (@Zac_Petkanas) February 23, 2020
Additionally, the system has a bias toward the geographic diversity of the GOP coalition vs. the concentrated population centers of the Dem coalition
2/
That's why many of us are worried about Sanders.
— Zac Petkanas (@Zac_Petkanas) February 23, 2020
While Trump, McConnell & McCarthy can lose the pop. vote and still get power, Sanders & House/Senate Dems will need to perform well in some very conservative areas of the country
Areas that aren't fond of "socialists"
4/
Ugh. should be "**DOESN'T** afford Dems" in the first tweet.
— Zac Petkanas (@Zac_Petkanas) February 23, 2020
Chris Matthews, the last of the vaguely old-style, blue-collar Democrats, compared Bernie’s victory in Nevada to the Nazis overrunning France in 1940 because he’s unstoppable – and that's a bad thing for the Democrats:
MSNBC’s Chris Matthews likens Sanders victory in Nevada to Nazi Germany overrunning France in 1940: “It’s too late to stop him … it’s over” pic.twitter.com/6GJetLoDkq
— Tom Elliott (@tomselliott) February 22, 2020
James Carville, who’s no fool, warns that Sanders is a “clear, defined frontrunner,” but that the problem is “it’s obvious he’s never been vetted in the press”:
James Carville: “if the DNC was running a carnival parade, we’d never get out of the chute”https://t.co/laNjT0AJmz pic.twitter.com/JfimI9CG8N
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) February 22, 2020
Even Joy Reid is getting seriously worried:
AMAZING @JoyAnnReid as @BernieSanders crushes #NevadaCaucus.
— Jordan (@JordanChariton) February 22, 2020
1) Reid & @msnbc JUST NOW realize the working class in America is DESPERATE and ANGRY at their corporate neoliberal club.
2) Reid essentially tells Dems to "figure out what you're gonna do" to stop Sanders pic.twitter.com/iuJKxq7CXc
No article about the dread experienced on the left would be complete, of course, without a nod to the anger that the NeverTrumpers are feeling. Having abandoned all their allegedly conservative principles simply because they don’t like Trump’s style, they’re now faced with a party that apparently has gone full socialist (and no American candidate should ever go full socialist).
Many NeverTrumpers will gladly vote for Bernie but I fear many college educ whites in suburbs will not, Sanders will lose, Sen. will stay R. Trump will have field day with oppo on Bernie. With our democracy in peril Dems are playing high risk with horrid ramifications
— Jennifer Rubin (@JRubinBlogger) February 22, 2020
Me now. pic.twitter.com/pY1rslgFak
— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) February 22, 2020
Although the markets are volatile right now as they try to predict what will happen with the Coronavirus, I’m willing to suggest one stock purchase: Buy popcorn stocks, because July’s Democrat convention should be one heck of a show.
The Democrats have a Hobson’s choice: Either they stick with Bernie, who currently does not appear capable of defeating President Trump; or they do what they did in 2016, which is to deny the nomination to Bernie, risking a massive, possibly violent, implosion within the Democrat party. After all, while the anti-Bernie elites are too refined to take to the streets, Bernie’s Bros will have no compunctions.