President Trump's base remains solid at roughly 43% of the public, an enthusiastic and reliable core, but not enough to ensure re-election, especially since voter enthusiasm is high on both sides of the aisle.  You can be sure that whoever the Democrat nominee is, the get-out-the-vote effort will be well funded and extensive.

So President Trump must win over people who have personal reservations about supporting him, particularly suburban families, especially the women there, who are put off by his lack of conventional political polish or who have been persuaded that all the screaming about impeachment indicates there must be some underlying issues of concern.  President Trump needs to persuade them to metaphorically hold their noses and vote for him as the lesser of two evils, the Democrat nominee being the greater evil.

In the end, the greater evil has to rest on fear of the loss of the prosperity that President Trump's tax and regulatory reform efforts have brought.  The media have studiously ignored the obvious reality that labor markets are tight and wages are rising, and in most places, anyone who wants a job can find one.  But voters know their own financial situation, even if the media ignore the economy, and a vast majority of families are doing better than under the eight years of Obama.

Yesterday, President Trump made his case for re-election, and the Trump War Room tweeted out the core appeal.  It takes all of 46 seconds to listen:

“The average median income under President Bush rose only $400 over an 8-year period. Under President Obama, it rose $975 over an 8-year period...And under my administration, it rose $5,000 over slightly more than just 2 1/2 years. That’s a big difference.” - @realDonaldTrump pic.twitter.com/wq4K7wrldn

— Trump War Room (Text TRUMP to 88022) (@TrumpWarRoom) November 12, 2019

It will be easier to scare voters about losing the fruits of prosperity if the Dems nominate a true radical like Elizabeth Warren, but even the so-called "moderate" alternatives like Biden and Buttigieg will have to bow to the far left base of the Dems enough to sow seeds of doubt about how the Dems will tank the economy and bring back food stamps as the way of life for millions.

James Carville's words that propelled Bill Clinton into the White House remain valid today: "It's the economy, stupid."

Photo credit: Twitter video screen grab.