Momentum is building in the Democratic caucus to deny former speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi the leadership of her party.

Pelosi got a genuine challenger for the speakership yesterday when Ohio Democrat Rep. Marcia Fudge threw her hat into the ring. Fudge, who is black, is answering a desire by many Democrats who believe there should be a minority member in one of the top three leadership positions. Fudge says she has enough votes to block Pelosi's bid. This was echoed by Rep. Seth Moulton who claims to have enough votes pledged to him to deny the California Democrat a first ballot victory.

Los Angeles Times:

Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.), who has long opposed Pelosi’s returning to the speakership, says he has enough firm commitments from fellow party members that he could defeat the San Francisco Democrat in a floor vote.

“100%,” he said. “We’re getting more all the time, but we have enough.”

Moulton wouldn’t say exactly how many votes he has in his pocket or identify the members.

Pelosi has faced rebellion in the Democratic ranks before and always managed to emerge on top. But this time the struggle could be more difficult.

According to a tally of public comments, 11 newly elected members have pledged to vote against Pelosi in the speaker’s race, which will be decided as the first vote in the new Congress in January. Some have made ironclad promises to oppose her under “any circumstances” and others have made less strident promises. Another dozen incumbents are expected to vote no, according to public statements and sources whipping against Pelosi.

But it is unclear whether that opposition will hold and if it is actually enough to deny her the speakership.

Moulton is one of several lawmakers gathering signatures on a letter that he hopes will convince Pelosi to step aside and allow new Democrats to assume leadership roles. No one has announced that they plan to run against her and Pelosi has showed no sign that she is ready to step down.

Democrats are facing the same problem that confronted Republicans who wanted to oust Rep. Paul Ryan from the speaker's chair. Who are you going to get to replace him? While there are no shortage of candidates, trying to get the caucus to coalesce around one, single member will be very difficult. And Democrats don't want their first act of the new Congress to be a messy leadership fight.

As for Pelosi, she's not dead yet.

Politico:

While the decisive floor vote on the next speaker isn't until January, the lobbying campaign is in full force. Pelosi huddled with the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus and put out a press release promising to work with it on reforms to decentralize power to rank-and-file members. She also met with the Congressional Black Caucus, whose leader, Rep. Cedric Richmond (D-La.), recently floated the idea of having a CBC member challenge her or Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) for the No. 1 or No. 2 position.

"She’s been very active," Rep. Gwen Moore (D-Wis.), a CBC member, said before Fudge revealed she might run for speaker. "I don’t know where [Pelosi] gets the energy to do all that she’s done. I’m curious as to who thinks that they can rival her. So I’ll be very eager to see who this shadow candidate is.”

The Pelosi debate also spilled into a Wednesday afternoon caucus meeting, when Democrats discussed the rules changes that Pelosi's critics are seeking. Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D-Colo.), who opposes Pelosi for speaker, stood to advocate for a proposal that would allow members to vote for whomever they want on the House floor for speaker.

Democrats are currently bound by caucus rules to vote for whomever wins the nomination for speaker. The nominee is decided behind closed doors in a secret ballot vote, and requires only a simple majority of members to clinch. It's a much lower threshold than is needed on the House floor, where a small number of Democrats could conceivably block Pelosi.

Most of the opposition to Pelosi is not based on ideological differences, but on questions about her style. Unspoken among Democrats is her mental state. It's clear from numerous public appearances over the last few years, the Nancy Pelosi is not mentally fit to perform the public duties of speaker. These include weekly TV interviews on the Sunday cable news shows and speeches. She has shown herself to be confused - sometimes incoherent - in her appearances at both of these venues.

But make no mistake; Pelosi still has real power. And if she chooses to fight, many Democrats will have second thoughts about going against her. Besides, Pelosi has made it clear that denying her the speakership would anger many Democratic women at a time when the party won several races during the mid terms thanks to the energy and votes of women.

If I were a betting man, I'd give Pelosi's enemies only a one in four chance of unseating her. The leadership in the party is solidly behind her, she has raised a ton of money for many members, and has framed her election as speaker in terms of identity politics.

Given all that, Democrats will be hard pressed to defeat her.