How Andrew Gillum could turn Florida deep blue
The Constitution calls for the redrawing of congressional districts every ten years. This will occur again in 2020.
The act of redistricting is important because voters elect their state representatives, state senators, and members of the U.S. House of Representatives from these newly drawn districts.
In Florida, both congressional and state legislative district lines are drawn by the state legislature. Congressional lines are adopted as regular legislation and are subject to gubernatorial veto. State legislative lines are passed via joint resolution and are not subject to gubernatorial veto. State legislative district maps are automatically submitted to the Florida Supreme Court for approval. In the event that the court rejects the lines, the legislature is given a second chance to draft a plan. If the legislature cannot approve a state legislative redistricting plan, the state attorney general must ask the state supreme court to draft a plan. There are no similar procedures in place for congressional districts.
The Florida Supreme Court recently ruled that the next governor of Florida will have the opportunity to appoint three new justices to the Florida Supreme Court. Republican Party of Florida chairman Blaise Ingoglia stated: "Andrew Gillum would appoint radical, activist justices who would legislate from the bench and work to eliminate school choice, erode pro-life principles and impose big-government ideology on our state." A far-left court could also impact Florida's district maps.
For example, if Democrats are unhappy with how the legislature draws the lines, they will likely contest the proposed drawings and file a lawsuit. Assuming that this happens, the case could end up in the Supreme Court, at which time the Democrats will submit their proposed districts to the far left-leaning court. These districts will likely favor a shift in the balance of power to the Democrats.
Redistricting affects political power. It determines which party controls Congress and state and local governments across the country. Even when the population is divided equally, drawing the lines one-way can reward Democrats and punish Republicans or vice versa. Some line-drawing can protect incumbents. Some line-drawing can guarantee they will face a potent challenger, either from their own party or the opposite party. Consequently, redistricting has a direct bearing on what matters a legislature chooses to tackle, and which to ignore.
If Andrew Gillum is elected governor of Florida, he will appoint far left-leaning justices who will be more inclined to favor the Democratic proposed state district maps. Gillum, a Democrat, will also have the power to veto the proposed congressional district lines. If this happens, and district lines are drawn in a manner that favors Democrats, many more Democrats will be elected in subsequent elections, and the Florida congressional delegation could turn Democrat. This sentiment is shared by some Democrats not only in Florida, but around the country.
"Democrats are in good shape to win a lot of governorships in important states and be able to force through fair lines after the next census," said John Hagner, a Democratic strategist and redistricting expert who is involved in a number of gubernatorial races this year.
If Democrats can sweep the governors' races in those states – a real possibility – that could lead to huge gains and a much more even playing field in the battle for the House after the decennial census and redistricting play out before the 2022 elections.
If the states' maps are dramatically redrawn by 2022, however, that will change. Rather than having a perennially uphill challenge at winning House control, Democrats will only be looking at a small disadvantage largely driven by the tendency of Democrats to cluster in more densely populated areas and the drawing of minority-majority districts.
If Andrew Gillum is elected, he will appoint activist Supreme Court justices who will legislate from the bench and potentially help shape the newly drawn district maps to benefit Democratic candidates. For this reason, among others, Republican voter turnout is vital next week.
Mr. Hakim is a writer and a practicing attorney. His articles have been published in The Washington Examiner, The Daily Caller, The Federalist, The Western Journal, American Thinker and other online publications.
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