The "who was responsible" inquiry for the sonic attacks against the U.S. Havana embassy is now focusing on Russia.  In previous posts, I suggested that it was either an inside job to force a confrontation with President Trump or an act by a hostile power like Russia or North Korea.

According to this NBC report, it's Russia:

Intelligence agencies investigating mysterious "attacks" that led to brain injuries in U.S. personnel in Cuba and China consider Russia to be the main suspect, three U.S. officials and two others briefed on the investigation tell NBC News.

The suspicion that Russia is likely behind the alleged attacks is backed up by evidence from communications intercepts, known in the spy world as signals intelligence, amassed during a lengthy and ongoing investigation involving the FBI, the CIA and other U.S. agencies.  The officials declined to elaborate on the nature of the intelligence.

The evidence is not yet conclusive enough, however, for the U.S. to formally assign blame to Moscow for incidents that started in late 2016 and have continued in 2018, causing a major rupture in U.S.-Cuba relations.

So do we wait for the smoking gun with Russian fingerprints?

My answer is no!

Cuba has a responsibility to protect diplomats.  The U.S. protects Cuban diplomats in Washington, D.C.

I remember that the Mexican army always protected the U.S. embassy whenever there were massive anti-Reagan demonstrations in the 1980s.  I could see it from my office window.  Military trucks and well armed soldiers would always arrive about an hour before the march.  It was our clue that a big one was coming later that day.  Thumbs up to the Mexican government for taking their responsibility seriously as the host country.

Cuba failed in this case, whether it was North Korea or Russia or an inside job.  The U.S. must ultimately hold Cuba responsible for exposing U.S. diplomats to harm.

The big question is, did Raúl Castro know?  If he didn't, then he has a lot less control of the island than he thinks he does.  On the other hand, all of my Cuban friends do not believe that something this big could have happened without Raúl Castro's knowledge.

PS: You can listen to my show (Canto Talk) and follow me on Twitter.