Rumors about Speaker Paul Ryan being replaced have been circulating in Washington for months.  The recent failure of the House to pass a farm bill and a outright revolt by moderates who are threatening to bring DACA legislation to the floor over Ryan's objection have given some credence to the speculation.

Might Ryan throw in the towel before the end of the year and retire from Congress? 

Weekly Standard:

Top Republicans in Congress and the White House have in recent days entertained a plan to push House Speaker Paul Ryan out of his post over the summer, in an effort to clear the way for his presumed successor, Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, to assume the speakership.

A source involved in the conversations and who has discussed the idea with President Donald Trump told THE WEEKLY STANDARD that Trump believes there is merit to the plan, but has not formed a final position.  McCarthy has been weighing the effort alongside a small group of trusted advisers, considering the pros and cons of forcing Ryan's hand, and debating the best time to launch the effort.  As of last week he had not spoken to Ryan about the idea, the source said.

Proponents say that the benefits are twofold.  It would trigger a vote to replace Ryan, giving McCarthy an opening to become speaker of the House – that is, if he can avoid crashing and burning on takeoff like he did in 2015.  But it would also force Democrats to cast votes for – or against – Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, a favorite target of Republican campaign strategists, to be speaker.  That vote could then be used against vulnerable Democrats during the height of campaign season, the source said.

Under the plan, Ryan would step down from his post as speaker prematurely but would remain a member of Congress until his term ends in January 2019.  The prospect of Ryan's right-hand man amping up the pressure for him to leave sooner portends a significant shift in the power dynamics of the chamber.  A spokesperson for Ryan declined to comment.  McCarthy responded in a statement provided to TWS: "Completely untrue.  Paul has my total support.  Together we are completely focused on our agenda and traveling the country to take our unified message and action to the voters in November."

The report rings true, but how much substance is really there?  If Trump signs on to the effort, Ryan can pretty much punch his ticket for home.  But I'm sure there are plenty of people urging caution on the president.  Unless Trump gets some pretty strong indications that McCarthy would win, he won't put himself on a limb to support him. 

Ryan still has some powerful friends in Washington, and as we all know from watching Game of Thrones, "When you strike at a king, you must kill him."  Trump would have to be damn sure that a McCarthy effort to unseat Ryan would have a good chance of success before he signed on.

Ryan knows he's outlived his stay.  But while he has already said he supports McCarthy as a replacement next term, that might not translate into a win for McCarthy before the end of the year.  This is especially true if others like Rep. Steve Scalise mount a challenge to McCarthy from the right.  Scalise probably couldn't win, but he could pull enough votes from McCarthy to hand him a humiliating defeat. 

Ryan may chuck it all anyway and avoid a ruinous intraparty scrum before the mid terms.  But he's not going to slink away.  If a way can be found where he leaves with his dignity intact, he just might take it.