The war between Israel and Iran – confined largely to Israeli air strikes on Iranian targets in Syria – may be about to escalate.

An Israeli security minister has put Syrian president Bashar Assad on notice that any attack against Israel by Iran on Syrian soil would have serious consequences.  And there are reports from Israel that Iran may be preparing a significant missile attack against Israel from Syria.

Haaretz:

Israeli defense officials are bracing for the possibility of an Iranian revenge attack from Syria in the near future, in the form of rocket and missile launches at northern Israel.

Officials believe Iran is determined to retaliate for the April 9 airstrike on Syria's T4 airbase, which killed seven Iranian military advisers and members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Iran blames Israel for this attack.

Israel has detected unusual involvement by Hezbollah in Iran's preparations for retaliation, even though the organization has been trying to keep its activity low-profile so as not to affect its position within Lebanon.  Aside from Hezbollah commanders, operatives from the Shi'ite militias that Iran funds in Syria have also been active in the preparations.

The operational planning, however, is being done by members of the Revolutionary Guards' Quds force.

It should be noted that there is an election happening in Lebanon right now, and Hezb'allah's war in Syria is not very popular – even among Shiites, who form Hezb'allah's base of political support.  The Lebanese people remember the war against Israel in 2007 that brought widespread destruction to the country's infrastructure.  Few in Lebanon want a repeat of that conflict with Israel.

It is unlikely that Hezb'allah would assist Iran until the election results are reported sometime this week.

But as Israel prepares to absorb an Iranian attack, the government is warning Assad that he is in the crosshairs if he allows Iran to attack Israel using bases in Syria.

Business Insider:

Israel could kill Syrian President Bashar Assad if the creep of Iranian military forces and missiles through the Levant towards Israel's borders don't stop, a security cabinet minister said on Monday.

"If Assad allows Iran to turn Syria into a military vanguard against us, to attack us from Syrian territory, he should know that would be the end of him, the end of his regime," Yuval Steinitz told Israeli news site Ynetnews.

The statement follows reports that Iran is preparing a massive missile attack against Israel on Sunday.

Iran has an estimated 70,000 fighters in Syria and likely more than 100,000 missiles and rockets in the region.  The US holds that Iran is preparing to attack the Jewish state and establish a land bridge from Tehran to Lebanon, where Hezbollah, an Israeli and US-designated terror organization, recently strengthened its position in parliament.

Israel has repeatedly said it will not allow Iran's dominance to spread to its borders, and has carried out more than 100 airstrikes in Syria to halt its progress.  Israel considers Hezbollah an extension of Iran, which has vowed to destroy the Jewish state.

But most recently, the airstrikes threatened to escalate.  After an armed Iranian drone reportedly flew into Israeli airspace, Israel shot down the drone and responded with a massive storm of strikes that it says took out half of Syria's air defenses.

Unless there is restraint shown on both sides, this conflict is almost sure to escalate.  Could there be war?  Israel and Iran are already at war in Syria, and any attack from there or Lebanon could easily become a regional conflict where Israel goes full bore to eliminate the Iranian threat from Syria.  To do that, the Israelis would have to take on not only Iran's proxies, but probably the Revolutionary Guards themselves. 

That could mean attacks on Iran as well as Syria. 

Assad is not an independent actor.  Much like Fidel Castro in the early 1960s, he has little say in what Iran or the Russians do.  Castro acquiesced to Khrushchev's provocative move to station nuclear missiles in Cuba despite serious misgivings.  Assad will have little influence on Iran if the mullahs decide to go to war with Israel.

In order to topple Assad, the Israelis would almost certainly have to take on the Russians, who see Syria and Assad as the linchpin to their Middle East strategy.  That won't happen, but there is little doubt that Israel will try to significantly weaken Assad's military if Iran launches a strike from Syria. 

With such bitter enemies facing off against each other, with Iran pledging to wipe Israel off the map, any conflict that erupts in Syria has the potential to get out of control and engulf the entire region in war.