The stark realities of Macron's French Revolution

The adjective that was most used by the English-language press to describe Sunday's runoff election in France was "stark."  In most cases it modified the noun "choice."

After the April 23 primary results matched Emmanuel Macron against Marine Le Pen, The Wall Street Journal headlined: "France's Stark Choice."

Following the fiery debate between the two candidates at the beginning of the month, the New York Times proclaimed: "In France, a Stark Debate and a Stark Choice."

The day after the runoff election, Fortune wrote:

The candidates' polar-opposite visions presented the 47 million registered voters with the starkest possible choice.   Le Pen's closed borders faced off against Macron's open ones; his commitment to free trade ran against her proposals to protect the French from global economic competition and immigration.   Her desire to free France from the EU and the shared euro currency contrasted with his argument that both are essential for the future of Europe's third-largest economy.

Sounds pretty stark, eh?  But did the French electorate really have a choice? 

It seems that many citizens didn't feel that they had any alternative but to stay at home.  Others chose to cast a blank ballot.  The British Express summed it up as follows:

A record-breaking 12 per cent of French voters are believed to have spoiled their ballots – apparently refusing to vote for either of the presidential candidates.

Furthermore, 25.3 per cent of those eligible to vote did not do so – a record amount since the 1969 general election (when two center-right candidates faced each other).

The total number of abstentions and spoiled ballots – a whopping 12 million – beat the 10.7 million votes that Ms Le Pen won on Sunday's vote.

Thus, Macron's seemingly overwhelming victory (he beat Le Pen by 32 points, winning 66.9% of the vote) wasn't a landslide at all.  In reality, he was chosen by only 43.6% of registered voters.

It seems that many voters couldn't be conned.  They knew they were being offered not a real choice between two visions of France, but rather repackaged goods from the country's failed political past.

Marine Le Pen had done an excellent job of detoxifying her racist father's anti-Semitic National Front.  In spite of the fact that she won almost twice as many votes as her father did when he challenged President Jacques Chirac in the 2002 second round, this week's election was a repeat of far-right phobia.  Then, as now, right and left joined forces to ensure that the National Front would not gain power.  

Macron enlivened the moribund socialists by creating a new centrist party – "En marche!," or "On the Move."  Combining a program of moderate economic reform with the failed multiculturalism of the left, the 39-year-old economist seemingly projected a new dynamism and hope for France.

Not all French citizens were convinced.  Many of those who did cast a ballot were voting against Le Pen rather than for Macron.

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In spite of its strong ideological presence on the French political scene, the National Front won only two seats (of 577) in the 2012 parliamentary elections.  In the unlikely event that Marine Le Pen had won the presidency this week, the National Front would have had to increase that to an absolute majority in next month's National Assembly elections in order to implement its agenda.

Macron's party, re-baptized "Republic on the Move" after his victory, is less than a year old.  The chances of such a new movement taking control of the Assembly are slim.  François Fillon, the traditional right's candidate, was defeated in the primaries yet won 20.01% of the vote.  His Républicains won't have to wait for midterm elections like in the U.S.; they're hoping to make a comeback in June.

The radical left's Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who won 19.58% of the primary vote, unlike Fillon, refused to endorse Macron in order to prevent a far-right victory.  His party, Unbowed France, is hoping to capitalize on Mélenchon's new-found popularity in order to win seats in the Assembly.  They are unlikely to be natural partners in implementing the inexperienced president's agenda. 

Perhaps Emmanuel Macron's youth and his centrist image will somehow allow him to implement at least part of his economic reforms.  Yet, the day after his victory, France's powerful unions took to the street to protest his proposed policies.     

The state of emergency declared after the November 2015 terrorist attacks are due to expire after the elections.  Macron has stated that France will continue to accept refuges and seek more multicultural integration. 

The French presidential election offered a fake "stark choice" for the future of a country long in the doldrums.  The stark reality is that France – whose motto is "liberty, equality, fraternity" – is most likely headed for more of the same: immigration, terrorism, and social unrest.

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