Since 1984, the candidate with the higher strong unfavorable rating usually has won, according to Asche Schow of the Washignton Examiner.  Ronald Reagan was more strongly disliked than Walter Mondale; George H. W. Bush was more strongly disliked than Michael Dukakis; Bill Clinton was more strongly disliked than Bob Dole; George W. Bush was more strongly disliked than John Kerry; Barack Obama was more strongly disliked than John McCain and Mitt Romney.

There have only been two occasions where the more disliked person lost: In 1992 and 2000. George H. W. Bush had higher strong unfavorable ratings but lost to Bill Clinton and Al Gore had higher strong unfavorable than George W. Bush but lost.

hat tip: windandsea