It’s no secret that I want the Democrats to engage in steel cage death match between the Clinton and Sanders factions, damaging the eventual nominee at least a badly as the GOP fracas (and that’s pretty badly, I admit).  The results from the Nevada Caucuses are therefore good news.

After pouring a massive amount of money into organizing turnout among union members and minorities, Hillary was able to eke out a narrow 5 point victory that was entirely due to a massive edge (78 – 22% according to entrance polls) among black voters, who comprised 13% of the Democrats’ electorate in Nevada.  She will walk away with a fairly narrow delegate edge in Nevada.  She lost virtually every other demographic group to Sanders, besides blacks, even Hispanics.

This reveals that among most of the party, aside from the black voters, she is unpopular. Blacks comprise 13% of the national electorate and 25% of the Democrats’ vote.

This means that Clinton’s edge among blacks, if it remains large, will help her win the nomination, which is a good thing for the GOP, it now seems to me.  She is a truly horrible candidate, not trusted by voters, old news in a historical moment that demands change, with a voice, when emphatic, like chalk dragged across a slate board the wrong way, and facing a possible criminal referral from the FBI. 

It seems highly unlikely that Clinton will be able to muster anything approaching the turnout among blacks that Barack Obama was able to accomplish. She is not only white, she is privileged by virtue of her marriage. She may have been a civil rights activist when young, and she may pander as hard as she can, but she won’t be able to inspire African-Americans to get out and vote and cajole their friends and neighbors to do so the way Obama could.

To the shock of nearly everyone, money is turning out to be a problem for Hillary. Not only is Bernie Sanders outraising her, thanks to numerous small donations received almost costlessly online, she has maxed out on campaign donations from her base of wealthy Hollywood and New York liberals, and is forced to leave the campaign trail to go to fundraisers, which are expensive and time consuming.

Then there is the matter of (ahem) possible fraud. Just as with the Iowa caucuses, there are indications of hanky-panky. The biggest vulnerability Hillary faces is the perception among the Sanders faction – the younger, educated, and enthusiastic parts of the party – that she is being forced on them by the party establishment. This is the kind of treatment that encourages people staying home in November.

Donald Trump, the GOP frontrunner, is quite possibly able to speak to at least some of the Sanders faction as the voice of an alienated rebel. Rush Limbaugh among others is hypothesizing that Trump is indeed aiming at drawing alienated Democrat voters, which explains his blaming of G.W. Bush for invading Iraq on false pretenses.

The best possible outcome for the GOP, no matter who is the nominee, is an angry Sanders faction anxious to punish the party for forcing Hillary down their throats. Nevada plays into that scenario vey well.