Serious political conflict is breaking out in Germany over Chancellor Merkel’s open-door policy for Muslim migrants. Soren Kern of the Gatestone Institute reports:

Germany's Muslim population is set to nearly quadruple to an astonishing 20 million within the next five years, according to a demographic forecast by Bavarian lawmakers.

The German government expects to receive 1.5 million asylum seekers in 2015, and possibly even more in 2016. After factoring in family reunifications -- based on the assumption that individuals whose asylum applications are approved will subsequently bring an average of four additional family members to Germany -- that number will swell exponentially. This is in addition to the 5.8 million Muslims already living in Germany.

According to the president of the Bavarian Association of Municipalities (Bayerische Gemeindetag), Uwe Brandl, Germany is now on track to have "20 million Muslims by 2020." The surge in Germany's Muslim population represents a demographic shift of epic proportions, one that will change the face of Germany forever, "but we are just standing by, watching it happen."

Addressing an expo in Nuremburg on October 14, Brandl warned that untrammeled migration will entail heavy costs for German taxpayers and may also lead to social unrest. He said:

"A four-member refugee family receives up to 1,200 euros per month in transfer payments. Plus accommodation and meals. Now go to an unemployed German family man who has worked maybe 30 years, and now with his family receives only marginally more. These people are asking us whether we politicians really see this as fair and just."

Factor in the pattern of behavior of past Muslim migrants – creating no-go sharia zones, insisting on the supremacy of Islam, and exploiting social benefits paid for by indigenous people – and the potential for serious, indeed violent social conflict is obvious.  And if there one lesson of the 20th century worth remembering, it is that violent social unrest in Germany is a Very Bad Thing for the world.

But, you may protest, 21st-century Germany is a very different place.  A democracy, after all.  But as Carol Brown notes on these pages today, protest against the Muslim invasion is being repressed, with the collaboration of dominant private industry.  Hmmm...the German government collaborating with huge companies to enforce its political positions and suppress disagreement...?

Of course, suppressing officials of the State of Bavaria may be more difficult.  Bavaria is reliably conservative in its politics, and although only the second largest state in population, it has the largest economy in Germany and a per capita income of $48,000 per year, making it very wealthy.  Surveys oin the past have revealed that its capital, Munich, is where a third of all Germans would like to live.

Kern notes that reality is setting in on some German politicians in Merkel's camp:

After months of attacking critics of Merkel's immigration policies as right-wing xenophobes, Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel and Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier conceded that the migration crisis risks tearing German society apart. In a joint essay published by Der Spiegel, the two wrote: "We cannot indefinitely absorb and integrate more than one million refugees each year."

And even in more left-leaning parts of Germany, resistance is growing, especially among local officials who have to cope with the Muslims.

On October 21, more than 200 mayors in North-Rhine Westphalia signed an open letter to Merkel, in which they warned they were no longer capable of taking in any more migrants. The letter states:

"We are seriously concerned for our country and the cities and towns we represent. The reason: the massive and mostly uncontrolled flow of migrants to Germany and our cities and towns.

"All available housing possibilities are exhausted, including tents and shipping containers. Managing the migrant shelters is so time intensive that our personnel can no longer attend to other municipal responsibilities."

Germany is entering a period of crisis.  My hope is that Merkel will reverse course before the conflict gets mores serious.  If she does not back down, the potential for genuine violence is there, and that would not be good for anyone.  Germany is by far the most populous and economically dominant nation in the EU, and its fate will be that of Europe.