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PrintAugust 16, 2015
Senator Flake comes out against Iran deal
How pathetic is it that President Obama would have claimed "bi-partisan support" for the Iran agreement if just one Republican voted for it?
Arizona Senator Jeff Flake was the subject of intense lobbying by the White House over the last few weeks, but yesterday, he announced he was going to vote against it.
Since Flake was the only Republican who seemed genuinely torn about the deal, it looks like all 55 GOP Senators are on board against the agreement.
“While Congress has received assurances from the administration that it does not forfeit its ability to impose sanctions on Iran for behavior on the non-nuclear side, these assurances do not square with the text of the [agreement]," Flake said, adding it should have been presented as a treaty for certain caveats.Flake, a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has been viewed as more willing than most Republicans to support foreign policy objectives on the part of the Obama administration, including its moves with Cuba.He had been one of only two Republicans who was either undecided or had not voiced a position on the Iran agreement, according to The Hill'sWhip List, and had been lobbied by the White House to vote in favor of the deal.Flake said last week he thought President Obama would have "votes to sustain a veto." Two-thirds of lawmakers would be needed to oppose the deal for Congress to be able to override an expected veto.Flake said Saturday he was concerned the deal would make the Obama administration more reluctant to confront Tehran over its activities in the region, giving "Iran leverage it currently doesn't have."
The most current whip list, compiled by the Hill, shows that opponents of the deal have an uphill climb to override the president's expected veto of the disapproval bill.
Currently, 20 Democratic Senators support the deal, with only one - Chuck Schumer - officially opposed. There are 7 Democrats whose public statements suggest they are leaning toward supporting the president. But two of them - Manchin and McCaskill - are "gettable" according to Hill insiders, because their constituents are heavily against the agreement.
There are still 18 Democratic Senators undecided, with at least one of those - Menendez - leaning heavily against it. With 13 Senators needed to override the veto, it means that out of the 18 undecideds, opponents must convince another 9 or 10 Democratic Senators to join them.
It's doable, but the effort is likely to come up one or two votes short. With a mid September vote looming, there is still time to change a few hearts and minds. But the White House is being very systematic in its lobbying efforts and the consensus - even among opponents - is that the president's veto is likely to be upheld.
