The Three Prices of Oil

In the United States, there are three (3) crude oil prices.  The media oil price – the oil price given to the public on television and in newspapers – is the guess of Wall Street speculators for a relatively small amount of oil six months in the future, technically called the New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil commodity futures price.  This price can be found daily here.

On December 18, 2014, the media price was $57.06.  This is the oil price in the media, which gives the public concern and thereby affects the stock market.

Wall Street Journal, December 11, 2014, page C4, Nymex crude-oil futures

The average price of foreign oil imports is never found in the media.  It can be found on a website of the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy, here.

In September 2014, the most recent data, the average foreign oil price was $88.08.

An owner of a product sets the price of that product when the owner sells that product.  Thus, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, owner of Saudi Arabian oil, sets the price of its oil when the oil is sold for export to the United States.  The price of foreign oil is set by the owner of that oil. 

The average price of domestic oil is never found in the media.  The average price of domestic oil can also be found on a website of the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy, here.

In September 2014, the average domestic oil price was $87.34.

The price of domestic oil is set by "Posted Prices."  The producer initially chooses a pipeline or refinery as the market.  Once the market has been selected and connected by pipeline, it cannot be changed at a whim.  The price is determined by the "Posted Prices" of the purchaser.  Here is an example.

On December 18, 2014, Chevron paid $55.26 for oil in the Buena Vista field of California before any gravity adjustment. 

From the prices of foreign and domestic oil, which are well hidden from the public, there is a clue about how to improve the economy.  Historically, domestic oil is cheaper than foreign oil imports. 

OPEC (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) has periodically bankrupted poorly run U.S. oil companies by lowering the price of foreign oil imports.  It gets the real estate agents out of the oil business.  OPEC also does not want to call attention to its high prices during presidential elections.  During the 2008 presidential election period, average foreign oil prices dropped from $124.20 per barrel in July 2008 to $36.86 per barrel in December 2008.  That is an $87.34 drop in the price of foreign oil during the last half of 2008.

The current oil price drop is not that significant compared to the 2008 oil price drop which either caused the 2008 stock market plunge or contributed to that plunge.  In any event, the immediate relief suggested by facts and history is for the Wall Street speculators to become bullish and optimistic, and bet now that oil prices six months from now will be higher.

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