President Obama yesterday signaled Russia that he doesn’t intend to go to the mattresses over Ukraine.  First, he made a televised statement from the White House that kinda, sorta sounded a tough if you weren’t paying close attention, but which, upon analysis, was appallingly weak. Charles Krauthammer, who, like the Russian diplomats, did pay attention, said on FNC’s Special Report last night:

"The Ukrainians, and I think everybody, is shocked by the weakness of Obama's statement," he said. "What he's saying is, we're not really going to do anything." …

"He said, any violation of Ukrainian territory is destabilizing, and that's not in Russia's interest. He is instructing Putin on what's in Russia's interest?" Krauthammer said.  "I can assure you, Putin has calculated his calculated his own interests, and he's calculated that detaching Crimea from Ukraine and making it, essentially, a colony of Russia, is in Russia's interest - because he knows he has nothing to fear from the west, because it's not led by anybody. It used to be led by the United States."

The, in order to clarify his unserious intentions:

 Minutes after issuing a stern warning to Russia and saying there will be a price to pay if it interferes militarily in Ukraine, President Obama headed to a “happy hour” with fellow Democrats.

Speaking at a fundraiser for the Democratic National Committee, Mr. Obama struck a very different tone than he had less than 30 minutes earlier, when he appeared with little warning in the White House press briefing room and issued a vague threat to Moscow.

“Well, it’s Friday. It’s after 5 o’clock. So, this is now officially happy hour with the Democratic party,” the president told his cohorts. “I can do that. It is an executive action. I have the authority.”

An audience member then asked the president to “tell us about your plans for nuclear war with Russia.”

“What the heck are you talking about?” Mr. Obama said to laughter and applause. “No, no, don’t worry about it. We’re OK. Have a seat. I don’t know anything about that plan. I don’t know what you’ve been reading.  Let me return to what I was talking about. See, he thought happy hour started earlier.”

No serious analysts in Moscow, Kiev, Beijing, Pyongyang, or any other capital thinks that the United States under Barack Obama is willing to go to war over a little thing like the invasion of a friendly country. It’s state of nature time.

Fasten your seatbelts, it could get very, very ugly.