This would be a truly startling political development if GOP candidate Bob Turner were to win the special congressional election tomorrow to decide who will replace disgraced congressman Anthony Weiner.

PPP says all the signs are there for a titanic upset:

Republican Bob Turner is poised to pull a huge upset in the race to replace Anthony Weiner as the Congressman from New York's 9th Congressional District. He leads Democrat David Weprin 47-41 with Socialist Workers candidate Christopher Hoeppner at 4% and 7% of voters remaining undecided.

Turner's winning in a heavily Democratic district for two reasons: a huge lead with independents and a large amount of crossover support. He's ahead by 32 points at 58-26 with voters unaffiliated with either major party. And he's winning 29% of the Democratic vote, holding Weprin under 60% with voters of his own party, while losing just 10% of Republican partisans.

If Turner wins on Tuesday it will be largely due to the incredible unpopularity of Barack Obama dragging his party down in the district. Obama won 55% there in 2008 but now has a staggeringly bad 31% approval rating, with 56% of voters disapproving of him. It's a given that Republicans don't like him but more shocking are his 16% approval rating with independents and the fact that he's below 50% even with Democrats at 46% approving and 38% disapproving. Obama trails Mitt Romney 46-42 in a hypothetical match up in the district and leads Rick Perry only 44-43.

Beyond Obama's weakness, Turner has actually proven to be a pretty strong candidate. 45% of voters rate him favorably to 30% with a negative opinion. Independents give him good marks by a 56/17 spread and he has better than normal numbers across party lines with 29% of Democrats expressing a positive view of him to just 43% with an unfavorable one.

PPP is a Democratic party pollster. 

If the "incredible unpopularity" of Obama in a district that went in a landslide for the president in 2008 is responsible for turning a sure win into a sure loss, it will cause a shifting of deck chairs on the Titanic as Democrats try to escape the dead weight of an Obama presidency.

They will find that a very difficult proposition, considering most of them previously showed lock step support for the president. And a politician cannot escape his own record.

Update from Thomas Lifson:

Shades of Obama's run for the US Senate! Ben Smith of Politico has a sealed document from Weprin's divorce proceeding:

As the unexpectedly heated race for Anthony Weiner's old seat draws to a close, POLITICO has obtained a 25-year old child custody ruling that paints Democratic candidate David Weprin in a searingly negative light. (snip)

Justice Bruce Wright described Weprin as "heedless" of the welfare of his son, who was not yet two, and behaving in a manner that "shocks the conscience." The judge also describes him "extremely temperamental with a short fuse" - a description backed by his "almost impossible to control" in the court-room. And the ruling describes Weprin's behavior both as careless - he allegedly left the child with a doorman - and "obsessive": Weprin allegedly "rushed into the toilet with the child and refused to allow [his ex-wife Roselyn] in or to come out, and [the ex-wife] was compelled to call the police before [Weprin] would exit, although the bathroom was said to be cold."

Jennifer Rubin of the Washington Post looks ahead 48 hours: "At least the Democrats will have an excuse if Weprin loses on Tuesday."

Update: Don Surber notes that the Ground Zero Victory Mosque has entered into the race as an issue:

Remember all those lengthy lectures 13 months ago from our moral and intellectual superiors on the Ground Zero Mosque? Liberals insisted that we should be tolerant and support those all-American things like freedom of some religions, single moms, and the Prius. My how our liberal betters strutted and preened and clucked their tongues at us mouth-breathing, booger-eating, inbred, racist Tea Baggers for daring to suggest that maybe this was a bad idea. We must stand by basic American principles, they said.

Now, with a congressional seat in balance, liberals are saying How Dare You Quote Us

Thanks Imam Rauf! It is time that New York voters had a chance to make their thoguhts on the mosque known.