Politico's Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen take a look at the president's chances for a second term one year and three months from election day.

It is not a pretty sight:

This breezy certitude fails to reckon with how weak his fundamentals are a year out from the general election. Gallup pegs his approval rating at a discouraging 42 percent, with his standing among independents falling nine points in four weeks.

His economic stats are even worse. The nation has 2.5 million fewer jobs today than the day Obama took office, a fact you're sure to hear the Republicans repeat. Consumer confidence is scraping levels not seen since March 2009.

Where's the bright spot? Hard to see. Obama has few, if any, domestic achievements that enjoy broad public support. No one assumes employment, growth or housing prices to pick up much, if at all - something Obama is essentially powerless to change. And the political environment and electoral map are significantly tougher than in 2008, especially in true up-for-grabs states.

"The historical precedents of what happens to incumbent presidents in these economic circumstances are not positive or encouraging," said Geoff Garin, a top Democratic pollster. "There has been a false sense of confidence among a lot of Democratic activists."

Indeed, the activists believe that Obamacare will eventually be a political plus, that people will be grateful for the creation of a new consumer finance nanny agency, that jobs destroying policies will be seen as necessary to punish "the rich," and that no one will notice how incompetent our foreign policy is being handled.

Those aren't "drags" on Obama's re-election; they're stakes through the heart.

Hat Tip: Ed Lasky