A budget deal between the GOP and the White House may be near that would lock in cuts totaling a paltry $73 billion - a little short when you consider that the deficit this year will exceed $1.5 trillion.

Politico:

Daley's latest intervention came by way of a phone call to the speaker Monday that set the stage for the House and Senate Appropriations Committees to begin meeting Wednesday to work toward the new target of $1.055 trillion, $33 billion less than the spending rate when this Congress began and $73 billion below Obama's initial 2011 budget requests.

That's the midpoint of a range previously discussed by Reid and Boehner's representatives, but Democrats complained that Daley committed them to $3 billion more in cuts without any certainty that Boehner will not demand more.

Indeed, Biden himself called Boehner Wednesday in an apparent effort to lock in the number, but the speaker reserved the right to demand more reductions, depending on the fate of funding limitations and policy riders conservatives also want in the final bill.

Peanuts. They are trying to bail the Titanic using a teaspoon.

I would put the chances of a government shutdown of a week or longer at 2-1 in favor. The "slowdown" idea isn't flying so it will be the whole smash or nothing. And once the GOP goes all in for shutdown, they would be politically dead if they backed out and gave in to the Dems and White House on anything less than at least the appearance of significant progress in getting the deficit under control.

This is why Boehner and McConnell want to avoid shutdown. It is a very risky move with potential fall out that could cost the party dearly in 2012. But if they can't get a deal otherwise, even the establishment GOP will reluctantly go along.